Dumping Europe? Will Trump end the war without a settlement in Hormuz

Today (Tuesday) morning (US time) Trump went on a renewed attack. In a post he published against Britain he wrote: “To all the countries that are unable to obtain jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, such as Britain, which refused to intervene in the elimination of the Iranian elite, I have a proposal for you: one thing – buy from the US, we have a lot; second thing, build up some late courage, go to the Strait of Hormuz, and just take You’ll have to start learning how to fight yourselves, the US won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.” Trump then went on to blast France for “not allowing planes loaded with military supplies to fly over French territory”, and wrote: “USA remember!!!”

These things symbolize a new escalation in relations between the US and Europe, while the situation in Iran is getting more and more complicated internationally. They may also signal the fulfillment of the theory that Trump intends to unilaterally end the war with Iran, come what may, and leave the situation in Hormuz as it is, when Iran actually controls the maritime traffic in this critical artery for the world economy.

After all, Europe “fell into a trap” – whether it was set on purpose or happened by accident – and refused to extend any helping hand to the US. On the contrary, European leaders competed among themselves to condemn the war more sharply, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer still publishes new messages to critics in which he boasts that he “didn’t put Britain into a hopeless war”, and even uses the issue to bash the conservatives.

Trump wrote about the opportunity to distance himself even further from the continent, even further from the commitments to the NATO alliance, and even to make Europe the “bad guy” in the scenario he is building regarding Iran. As a wise man for the weak, Trump may pass the responsibility of hormozing on to other countries – primarily the European countries that condemned the war – and turn the war in Iran into their problem.

Europe needs gas more than the US

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal this morning, that seems to be the direction of the president. The newspaper said that opening the Strait of Hormuz would be a task “to be assigned” to an international coalition. Europe needs the Qatari monzel gas more than the USA, it also needs the jet fuel from the Gulf more than the USA, and the same when it comes to fertilizers, chemicals and more. In fact, according to a test that took place in Germany, about 90% of German industry is affected in this other way by the de facto Egyptian blockade. Trump can declare victory over Iran, as he does in the morning news, and then place the responsibility on Europe for the solution to the problematic situation created in Hormuz.

As a result, the continent will find itself in a problematic position: on the one hand, it cannot negotiate with Iran as China or India do. It is a member of NATO, hosts American bases, places soldiers in bases throughout the Middle East, not to mention issues of democracy and human rights; on the other hand, it will have to strategically take care of its energy and fertilizer supplies. Trump is illustrating to the continent its complete dependence on the United States, after igniting a conflict that raises the flames of European interests in terms of security and energy. Europe’s choice to stay completely out of the loop is an excuse to now throw it to the dogs.

In this sense, the repeated rants against Europe, the promise to “take care” of a recalcitrant Spain in NATO, the leaks about the evacuation of thousands of American troops from Germany, the disavowal of any future aid to Ukraine are all part of the American strategy – to declare victory and then slip back into an energy independent American nation protected by two oceans from the current war. The attention given to promoting this narrative Only strengthens the possibility that Trump will back down, but will leave a host of countries struggling to understand the new order – and deal with the consequences of his actions. Meanwhile, European leaders have shown no impressive foresight.