Oil, the biggest rise ever for Brent in March

March will be remembered, for petroliumlike the month that recorded the biggest increase – on a monthly basis – ever. The price of Brent it has in fact risen by 59% since February 28, i.e. since the Iranian conflict thus surpassing the previous record increase of 46% recorded in September 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait. Analysts interviewed by the Financial Times warn that i prices will continue to remain high and could rise further as long as the conflict continues.

The leap of Brent is the largest since the creation of the futures contract in 1988, and is however lower than when prices quadrupled between October 1973 and January 1974: the cost of raw went from 2.90 to 11.65 dollars a barrel due to theembargo imposed on the United States by Arab exporting countries because Washington supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War.

The causes of the rise and market forecasts

But the rise was even more evident for the refined products: il aviation fuel and the diesel have almost doubled since the beginning of the year, while the average price of gas in the United States, a politically sensitive indicator, it rose above $4 a gallon ($1.06 a liter) for the first time since 2022, i.e.Russian invasion. Also the WTIthe US benchmark, rose in March by more than 55%its biggest monthly increase since 2020 amid the pandemic shock.

The leap of crude oil prices follows the effective closure by theIran of Strait of Hormuzwith Tehran threatening to open fire on passing ships. The strait normally carries about a fifth of the petrolium and of liquefied natural gas world championships and its closure has already taken away approximately 300 million barrels to global supply, equal to almost three days of global consumption, in what analysts of Morgan Stanley they described it as a “far” more severe disruption since Russia’s 2022 disruption.

Brent will reach 110 dollars, but will then settle at 100

The Gulf countries failed to transport approx 10 million barrels and refineries in Asia, which depend on crude oil supplies from the Middle East, have also had to reduce overall capacity of approx 2-2.5 million barrels per day. Morgan Stanley now predicts that the Brent crude oil will average out to 110 dollars a barrel between April and June ea 100 dollars a barrel between July and September. Experts also pointed out that prices do not yet fully reflect the extent of the disruption caused by the war in Iran and which will likely increase further until demand is reduced. And efforts to release the strategic reservesnotes Tamas Varga analyst at the oil broker PVM, “did not have the hoped for impact” as did the revocation of the sanctions on the Russian oil and even on the Iranian one.