Operation “Harry’s Roar”: Will the bright week in Iran prevent the missile barrage?

The meteorological review for the coming week shows that Sunday (4/5) and Monday (4/6) will be characterized by clear and sunny skies in most parts of the country, including in the strategic launch centers in Kermanshah and the Tehran area. The temperatures will be comfortable, but the absence of clouds means that any movement of a mobile launcher on the axes will be completely exposed to the spy satellites and UAVs. Tuesday, April 7, is also expected to continue the clear trend in Tehran and the west of the country, which leaves the Revolutionary Guards at a tactical disadvantage in terms of camouflage.

The operational turnaround may come on Wednesday, April 8. While in Tehran the sky will remain partly clear, in the region of Kermanshah and the Zagros Mountains – where the main “missile cities” are located – local showers and variable cloudiness are expected. For the Iranians, this is a first “window of opportunity” where the closed skies may make it difficult for fighter jets to close rapid fire circles. However, on Thursday, the cloudiness will be more scattered, and in the center of the country in Tehran, the sky will appear to be only partly cloudy, which does not provide the full “smoke screen” that Tehran prefers before launching heavy barrages.

The second half of the week, on Friday and Saturday (April 10-11), will be completely clear again with temperatures climbing towards 30 degrees Celsius in the south of the country (Ahvaz region). These days are marked as “air superiority” days in which any attempt to take logistical arrays into the field will be met with immediate detection. Just ahead of next Sunday, April 12th, the maps indicate a thickening of moderate Brom clouds in Tehran, which again creates partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky conditions that may serve offensive activity.

In conclusion, the weather this week works in favor of the defensive and interception formations. The clear skies that are expected on most days allow for quick “incrimination” of targets and detection of preparations for launch even before the missiles leave the ground. In such conditions, the interception systems benefit from the redundancy of both optical sensors and radars, which significantly increases the chances of success in intercepting barrages. On the other hand, vigilance will focus on Wednesday and the short cloud windows in the west of the country, where nature may give the Iranian launchers the cover they are desperately looking for.