The gains on Wall Street were wiped out; Oil prices are back up

20:15

Shortly after the start of President Trump’s press conference, the gains recorded on Wall Street were erased and now the leading indexes are hovering around their base levels. At the beginning of the press conference, Trump stated that “Iran can be destroyed in one night, and that night could be tomorrow night.”

Oil prices are climbing again and are increasing at a rate of up to 2%. The price of Brent oil currently stands at about $110 per barrel, while the price of American oil stands at about $113 per barrel.

19:55

Trading on Wall Street is now running slightly higher, while investors are eagerly awaiting President Trump’s words at the press conference that will begin in the next few minutes. The Nasdaq index rises by about 0.4%, the S&P 500 climbs by about 0.3% and the Dow Jones advances by about 0.2%.

19:15

The ISM services index for March, released earlier today, showed a sharp contraction in employment and a rise in prices, although it still pointed to economic expansion. The index decreased by 2.1 points compared to February and stood at 54 points – below analysts’ expectations, which stood at 55.4 points, but still above the 50 point mark. This, when a reading above 50 points indicates expansion, and a reading below this threshold indicates contraction.

CNBC reported that several worrying points stood out in the survey: the price index jumped to 70.7 points – an increase of 7.7 points and the highest level since October 2022. At the same time, the employment index fell by 6.6 points to 45.2, the lowest figure since December 2023.

19:00

Trading on Wall Street continues to be conducted with price increases, despite the report according to which Iran has rejected the US proposal for a temporary ceasefire. The Nasdaq index rises by about 0.4%, the S&P 500 advances by about 0.3% and the Dow Jones climbs by about 0.2%.

The head of the US National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, said today that he still thinks the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year, despite the rise in energy prices. In an interview with CNBC, he said that once the oil supply shock wears off, the improvements in labor productivity resulting from technology will keep inflation under control, giving the Fed room to support the economy through easier monetary policy. According to the report, Hassett noted that Capital spending and the momentum from AI “are putting downward pressure on inflation, which should ease the pressure on the Fed. They should be able to lower the interest rate, and I expect that’s what will happen when my friend, Kevin Warsh, takes office.”

18:00

The gains on Wall Street moderate, amid a report by Iran’s government news agency (IRNA), according to which it rejects the US proposal for a temporary ceasefire. The Nasdaq index rises by about 0.4%, the S&P 500 advances by about 0.3% and the Dow Jones adds about 0.2% to its value.

According to the report, the Iranian response includes ten points and emphasizes the need for a permanent end to the war, taking into account Iran’s considerations. This response includes a series of demands from Iran, including: the end of the conflicts in the region, a safe passage protocol in the Strait of Hormuz, rehabilitation and the lifting of sanctions.

Oil prices are currently trading stably, with US crude trading around $111 a barrel and Brent crude trading around $109 a barrel.

17:25

Trading on Wall Street continues to go up. The Nasdaq index climbs by about 0.5%, the S&P 500 advances by about 0.4% and the Dow Jones adds about 0.2% to its value.

Mike Wilson, a strategist at the investment bank Morgan Stanley, wrote today in a message to investors that he estimates that the S&P 500 is in the process of forming a floor for the near term, and recommends that investors start adding risk to their investment portfolios selectively.

“We believe the S&P 500 is now consolidating a bottom, and believe it makes sense to begin increasing exposure to cyclical and quality growth stocks where earnings remain strong, valuations have contracted and sentiment is negative,” Wilson wrote. According to the CNBC report, Wilson marked the financial and consumer discretionary sectors, along with the technology giants – as preferred targets for acquisition.

17:00

Trading on Wall Street is conducted at this time mainly with price increases. The technology-biased Nasdaq index leads the gains and strengthens by about 0.6%, the S&P 500 advances by about 0.3% and the Dow Jones trades stably.

The media abroad are reporting that at 20:00 Israel time, President Trump is expected to hold a press conference together with the American military.

John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer, told CNBC that “while the conflict with Iran enters its sixth week, the ongoing concern about the time it will take to reach an effective resolution to the conflict is expected to remain, for now, as a negative weight that market participants will have to deal with,” he said. However, he added that “we remain positive in our forecast for the markets and the US economy this year, with ‘resilience’ being the key word that provides the market with enough opportunities to climb the well-known ‘wall of worries’.”

16:30

Wall Street opens the week with a mixed trend, amid reports of cease-fire talks between the US and Iran, when a high level of uncertainty remains ahead of the expiration of President Trump’s ultimatum. The S&P 500 index rises by about 0.2%, the Dow Jones falls by about 0.1% and the Nasdaq climbs by about 0.4%.

The declines in the S&P 500 are led by more defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, infrastructure and raw materials. On the other hand, the increases are led by the technology, cyclical consumption and finance sectors.

15:30

Against the backdrop of reports of cease-fire talks between the US and Iran, futures on Wall Street are currently trading in a mixed trend, although trading is volatile. The Dow Jones is down about 0.1%, the S&P 500 is up about 0.1% and the Nasdaq is climbing about 0.4%.

12:05

New York contracts rose, while crude oil prices fell, as investors turned their attention to reports of efforts to achieve a possible ceasefire in the war with Iran.

S&P 500 contracts rose 0.2%. Brent oil is trading around $108 per barrel. The dollar has weakened. The yield on 10-year US government bonds hovers around 4.36%. A number of markets in Europe and Asia were still closed for Easter.

Axios reported that U.S. allies are pushing for a last-minute deal with Iran, citing sources briefed on the details of the talks. The sources, who did not disclose their names, said the chances of reaching an agreement within the next 48 hours are low. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump escalated his threats and declared that he would begin destroying power plants in Iran starting Tuesday. Iran rejected Trump’s latest ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

07:00

Trading in Asia is running in a mixed trend this morning while crude oil prices reduced gains, according to Bloomberg investors are encouraged by signs that negotiations are about to take place between the US and Iran and it is possible that the conflict between Iran and the US may be limited in scope. This is despite the fact that there is no official confirmation of this. In the background – Trump’s ultimatum to “return Iran to the Stone Age” Iran will not open the Straits of Hormuz, it was supposed to end tomorrow evening but was extended by a day – to Wednesday at 03:00 am (Israel time).

The main stock indices in Japan and South Korea rose by more than 1% each, with technology stocks leading the gains. There is no trading in China and Hang Seng today.

Oil prices are trading up, albeit smaller, US oil is trading up 0.1% and at $111 per barrel. Brent oil rises by about 1% to $109 per barrel.

Wall Street futures have erased the early declines and are trading down up to 0.2%.

According to Bloomberg, citing Axios (an American news site), the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end to the fighting. The sources, who were not identified by name, said the chances of reaching an agreement within the next 48 hours are low.

Traders are clinging to any headline that might affect sentiment, after the war in Iran clouded forecasts and heightened inflationary concerns, while undermining expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Attention remains focused on energy prices and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz – a major artery for the flow of oil from the Middle East.

In Europe, the Christian world went on Easter vacation and there will be no trade today.

Last week the leading indices registered a significant recovery, closing a green week for the first time since the outbreak of the war against Iran. The S&P 500 rose by about 3.4%, the Dow Jones advanced to nearly 3% and the Nasdaq led the gains and strengthened by about 4.4%. There was no trading on Friday and on Thursday, following Trump’s statement, the New York Stock Exchange opened with sharp declines, but these were finally erased.

In the coming week, investors will get a clearer picture of the state of the economy, with new production data and an up-to-date reading of inflation. At the same time, the report season will open, with expected results from, among others, Delta Airlines and Consolidation Brands.

The Wall Street Journal wrote yesterday that one of the last places where investors could hide from the volatility of the stock market this year: value stocks, is starting to crack.

Value stocks, i.e. stocks that trade at relatively low multiples to their equity, quietly progressed towards a particularly strong year. Now, the war in the Middle East threatens to disrupt that strategy as well, leaving investors with fewer and fewer places of refuge in the face of concerns from rapid advances in artificial intelligence to geopolitical tensions.

Stocks like Nike fell about 29% during that period, while Lennar and Southwest Airlines lost about 24% each. Bank stocks, infrastructure and other sectors that are identified with the real economy, and which are often considered value stocks, also weakened during this period. “The wall of worry is currently in full construction,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at US Bank Asset Management.

One sector within the value stocks that benefited from the war is the energy companies. The energy sector in the S&P 500 is up 33% since the start of the year, when the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices to the highest levels since 2022 – when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed prices above $100 a barrel. The energy sector has the best performance among the 11 sectors in the index.

Bond traders ended the week betting that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged this year, amid signs of stabilization in the American labor market and uncertainty about the economic impact of the war in the Middle East.

U.S. government bonds fell after stronger-than-expected employment data for March, which lifted yields by about 3-4 basis points throughout the day in Friday’s short trade. Traders almost completely wrote off bets on a rate cut this year, and also reduced expectations for a cut in 2027.

However, the $31 trillion US bond market remains focused on the war in the Middle East, which has disrupted oil supplies from the region. Bond investors are torn between growth risks and inflation risks stemming from rising energy prices.

Over the past month, yields have largely followed the rise in oil prices, due to the fear that high fuel prices will raise US inflation rates and cause the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts.

In the commodity market, Trump’s statement on Thursday brought oil prices (of the Brent type) closer to $110 per barrel. The rating agency S&P estimated that the most violent phase of the conflict in the Middle East will weaken during April, but some disruptions are expected to continue until the end of the summer. Among other things, high energy costs and disruptions in supply chains. These are expected to harm growth and accelerate inflation. “We estimate that energy prices will remain high and volatile,” S&P economists wrote. “It is assumed that the price of Brent oil will average $80 per barrel by the end of 2026, with temporary spikes to an average price of over $100 per barrel.”

● The markets’ safe haven had a bad month, who can replace him?

Gold recorded its worst month in more than a decade – and this morning traded with another small drop, $4,660 per ounce, after gold dropped more than 10% in March 2026 – the sharpest monthly drop since June 2013 – despite this, Goldman Sachs returned and confirmed their forecast. to a price of $5,400 per ounce by the end of the year.

The main argument is that private investors who bought gold as a hedge against long-term macroeconomic risks – such as concerns about fiscal stability and the credibility of central banks – are not recognized. According to the bank, these positions are more “sticky” than short-term bets that fell apart after the US elections in 2024, because the underlying concerns are not resolved by a known date.

In addition, they note that the risks to the forecast are to the upside, because private investors may further increase their exposure to gold amid ongoing global uncertainty.

According to Goldman, the three main engines are purchases by central banks, flows to ETFs – ETFs on gold in the West have added about 500 tons since the beginning of 2025, far beyond what can be explained only by interest rate cuts and the “debasement trade” – concerns about high government debt and the credibility of monetary policy are pushing wealthy investors to buy physical gold, and at the same time institutions are buying call options as a bet on gains.

Bitcoin traded this morning with increases of about 3% and traded at over 69 thousand dollars.

Bitcoin demand remains under pressure even as purchases by financial institutions increase, suggesting that the broader market is still selling the currency.

The “apparent demand” (apparent demand) – the index that examines how much the demand rises or falls in relation to the amount of newly mined bitcoin – was negative in the amount of about 63,000 coins as of the end of last month, according to the analytics company CryptoQuant in a report published this week. This despite periods of stronger buying by ETFs and continued accumulation by Strategy.

The data points to a market where new demand is unable to keep up with the pace of sales of existing holders – a dynamic that can limit gains even when there appears to be an influx of institutional money.

CryptoQuant noted that large holders of Bitcoin, known as “whales”, which were previously a constant source of accumulation, have become net sellers and have sold significant amounts of the currency over the past year. “After accumulating roughly 200,000 bitcoins during the 2024 bull market, the whales began aggressive distribution from mid-2025, with the pace accelerating significantly during the fourth quarter of 2025,” the report said. “Historically, sustained negative accumulation by whales has coincided with periods of prolonged price weakness, and the current figure suggests that sales continue to be a significant structural headwind.”