First restrictions on fuel supplies for aircraft. Flights at risk

The first signs of stress in aviation fuel supply they also come in Italiadespite a framework that currently remains limited to a single supplier. The rationing regime activated until April 9th ​​in the airports of Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso and Venice brings the effects of one to the operational level crisis that for days airlines they connect to conflict in the Middle Eastto the risks on the Strait of Hormuz and to the fort rise in kerosene prices. Il Save group However, he specified that the limitations “are not significant” for the airports of Venice, Treviso and Veronawhere other suppliers capable of supplying the majority of carriers operate, and which remain guaranteed both i intercontinental flights both those in theSchengen area.

The Italian case fits into a broader European picture. Second PoliticoThe airports on the continent they are facing the risk of relapse that begin to emerge throughout the logistics chain. The most exposed scenario would be the British one: Londra Heathrow and other ports of the United Kingdom they are indicated as the most vulnerable, with prime flight cancellations already attributed to fuel, while the regional company Skybus has suppressed a route due to the prices. According to estimates from energy analysis company Kplerthe France it would be the second most exposed European country in terms of imbalance between supply and demandalbeit with a greater ability to find additional volumes from non-Gulf sources. In the scenario outlined, the Portugal could run out of fuel in four months, theHungary in five, the Denmark in six, while Italia e Germania they would have a margin of about seven months. France e Ireland they would reach eight months, while the Polandalmost self-sufficient, would be less exposed.

The causes of the crisis and European stocks

The problem, however, does not arise exclusively with this crisis: even before the war, Politico remember how the companies were already reporting a structural deficiency of kerosene In the European blocdue in part to sanctions on Russian oil and partly to the decline of refining capacity on the continent. Europe, explains the IATAhas long imported around 30% of the regional fuel demand. In general, the European airports they still have sufficient supplies to keep flights operational, but the risk of shortages in the coming months it is considered concrete, both by analysts and companies.

The reactions of the airlines

Ryanairfor example, is evaluating the cancellation of 5-10% of flights between May, June and July if the war continues for another 2-3 months. The CEO, Michael O’Learywarned in an interview with SkyNews that the companies would not have the possibility to choose with freedom which routes to sacrifice, because cancellations would depend on the airports in which the suppliers reported problems availabilitywith an estimated notice of between five and seven days. A bit of what happened today with the four Italian airports. Also the Lufthansa group confirmed that he fears repercussions on kerosene supply if he conflict in the Middle East should it continue. “For our passenger companies, about 80% of fuel requirement for the current year” is guaranteed “by roofing which attenuate the impact of rise in oil prices. However, we too are affected by theincrease in costs“.

Increase in consumption and impact on costs

Complicating the picture is also the fact that companies are already consuming more fuel than expected. From the beginning of war with IranIn fact, many carriers have been forced to lengthen their routes to avoid war-affected areas, thus increasing the consumption of kerosene. From February 28, the date of the start of the war, i spot prices have almost doubled, going from around 96 to 197 dollars a barrel. Fuel, he writes Aerotimeis generally worth between 20% and 35% of operating costs of a carrier and the current prices are eroding the company margins. In several cases, i flights booked before the conflict they leave already in loss.