Trump claims to have “exceeded” his goals in Iran. But what did he really achieve?

After five weeks of bombing, Trump agreed to a ceasefire without any of those objectives having been clearly achieved.

In his social media post on Tuesday, in which he announced the end of US bombings, for now, if Iran reopens the Strait of Ormuz, Trump stated that “we have already met and exceeded all military objectives.”

The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegsethtold reporters on Wednesday that the United States had achieved a “historic and overwhelming victory” because the Iranian military had been left “incapacitated for combat for years to come.”

Still, even supporters of the president’s decision to go to war expressed doubts about Iran’s defeat.

Mark Levin, the host of Fox News whom Trump often praises, lamented on Tuesday night in prime time that the Iranian regime “still survives.”

Laura Loomer, the far-right activist close to the White House, posted online that “we got nothing” from the ceasefire talks, “and the terrorists in Iran are celebrating.”

Lindsey Graham, the hardline Republican senator from South Carolina, warned that Congress would have to review any agreement.

The concern expressed by the president’s most staunch supporters highlighted the disconnection between the immense American military power displayed over the last month and the more complex consequences of the war for the security and influence of the United States.

It was an indicator of discontent with the outcome of a war that, for now, has left the Middle East looking very different from the ambitions Trump laid out when he announced the start of “major combat operations” more than a month ago.

“This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States Armed Forces,” Trump said in that late-night Feb. 28 video message, sporting a “USA” baseball cap.

But Iran did defy the United States, even as the U.S. military struck more than 13,000 targets, according to figures released by the Pentagon on Wednesday.

Iran attacked American partners in the Middle East and blocked shipping from the Persian Gulf.

Although Trump stated at the beginning of the war that “we would ensure that Iran did not obtain a nuclear weapon,” the president declared a ceasefire with hundreds of kilos of highly enriched uranium still in Iran’s possession.

On Wednesday, Trump declared on social media that “there would be no uranium enrichment” and that the United States would “work with Iran” to “unearth and eliminate” its stockpile.

However, there was no indication that Iran had agreed to such conditions.

Trump also promised to “destroy their missiles and raze their arms industry.”

The general Dan Cainechairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared on Wednesday that US bombs had hit “more than 450 ballistic missile depots” and 80% of Iran’s missile production facilities.

Richard Goldberg, senior adviser at the hardline Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, estimated that up to third of Iran’s missile arsenal remained intact and warned that “either dismantling is achieved or not.”

By all indications, the United States managed to sink much of the Iranian navy. Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, stated that 97% of Iran’s more than 5,000 naval mines had been destroyed and that the country now had no submarines.

But the ceasefire went into effect, although Iran retains its maritime power at the most crucial point for the world economy:

the Strait of Hormuz, which it has managed to block with small boats, drones and missiles launched from the coast.

Trump had insisted that Iran reopen the strait as part of the ceasefire.

The status of the strait was unclear Wednesday; Leavitt claimed that there had been an increase in maritime traffic, but observers did not record such an increase.

In any case, Iran seemed to retain the ability, if it so desired, to continue harassing merchant ships and preventing their passage.

Regarding Iran’s network of proxy armed groups, Leavitt stated that Tehran “already cannot distribute weapons to its allies in the region” and that its capacity to finance them has been considerably reduced.

However, they still pose a threat. Israel continues its war against the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon, while the Houthi militia in Yemen hinted in recent days that it could still join the fighting.

Iran’s theocratic regime remains in power, with the possibility of exerting even greater military control over the country.

The US-Israeli air campaign killed numerous senior officials, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader.

However, there is no conclusive evidence to support Trump’s claim that the leaders who replaced them are “very reasonable.”

Leavitt told reporters that by weakening Iran’s military capabilities, the United States and Israel had removed the “shield” that Iran was trying to erect around its nuclear weapons program.

“Their murderous and evil plans have been thwarted, both literally and figuratively,” Leavitt said.

But recent weeks have shown that Iran still has other ways to fight back.

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said it was true that the war had revealed America’s military power and sophistication, reducing Iran’s arsenal of missiles and drones and decimating its navy.

However, he noted that the Iranian military was already weak before the war and compared American claims of victory to Muhammad Ali saying he was defeating a teenage boxer.

“The real threat that Iran continues to pose is asymmetric,” Katulis said, referring to capabilities such as Iran’s low-cost one-way strike drones, its persistent network of allies and its control over the Strait of Hormuz.

“The outlook is not encouraging.”