U.S. fertility rates have reached an all-time low in 2025 – and are approaching the limit

The number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 — the total fertility rate — reached an all-time low of 53.1 in 2025, according to provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The rate has largely declined since 2007, the pre-recession peak, when millennial women began entering their peak fertility years.

“People are waiting longer to become parents, and probably want to make sure their lives are in order before they do,” said Manning, associate director of the university’s National Center for Family and Marriage Research. “There may be a lot of uncertainty, which may not be good for society at all.”

According to CDC data, among girls aged 15 to 17, the birth rate will decrease by 11% in 2025. Among girls 18 and 19, the rate will decrease by 7%.

The decline in total productivity in the United States follows global trends, but it remains higher than in many developed countries. The latest UN estimates show that the global rate continued to decline in 2023 and approached replacement level. It fell below replacement level in more than half of all countries.