After the defeat: the leaders who are expected to “make life bitter” in Europe

After the defeat this week in the elections of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of the most prominent and inhibiting voices in the European Union in recent years, a central question arises in Brussels about who will step into his shoes as the leader who is expected to replace him as someone who challenges the European consensus.

For years, Orban was considered the main disruptor of the work of the union, mainly thanks to the repeated use of the right of veto to delay key decisions that require unanimous consent, mainly sanctions on Russia and support for Ukraine. Now, with his expected replacement by Petr Medyar, a center-right politician who signals a willingness to cooperate more with Brussels, some hope that the road to agreements will be easier. At the same time, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has already put forward a proposal to change the voting rules to reduce situations of future blockages.

But despite the hope for change, the Union is in no rush to breathe a sigh of relief. In the European Council, where the leaders of all 27 countries sit, there remain some allies of Orban as well as figures who may become new foci of opposition.

The most prominent of all is probably the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Pizzo, who is considered a loyal partner of Orban in the veto policy. Pizzo, like Orban, is considered close to Putin, and cooperated with Budapest in attempts to delay sanctions on Russia and even demanded an exemption from the European loan of 90 billion euros to Ukraine.

After Orban’s defeat, Pizzo actually remained the main pro-Russian voice within the union. He even hinted that he would be ready to veto himself the transfer of funds to Kiev, although in the past he tended to back down at the last minute and join the majority position.

Another figure who is marked as someone who could make it difficult is the new-old Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, a 71-year-old billionaire who is sometimes called the “Czech Trump”. Babish has already shown similar tendencies to Orban, after he joined the demand to exclude his country from the loan to Ukraine and even called for a reduction in aid to Kiev.

At the same time, he often attacks the climate policy of the Union and claims that it harms Czech industry, partly due to his political constraints at home, as he sits in the government with the “Drivers” party. However, the assessment in Brussels is that leaders from the right will not necessarily torpedo every decision, but will be more “difficult” on certain issues, and will demand different demands in exchange for agreement on sensitive issues.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Maloney is also identified as a potentially “problematic” factor. Since coming to power, she has been trying to balance right-wing national positions at home with cooperation with the Union, for example by promoting the tightening of immigration policy with broad consensus. She often acts differently from Orban, but there is definitely an ideological affinity between them. At one of the last summits, she even expressed understanding of Orban’s position regarding the loan to Ukraine.

In general, Maloney advocates a consensual approach regarding work in the European Union, and to date has not acted in a confrontational manner or imposed a veto. At the same time, she is currently in a domestic political crisis, and it is not impossible that she will choose extraordinary actions in order to renew her support.

In Slovenia, former Prime Minister Janez Janša may make a political comeback after a particularly close election, and is considered a leading candidate even though a new government has not yet been sworn in. Jansha, who is identified with the populist right and often confronts journalists and goes against the “establishment”, is considered an ally of Orban on various issues. However, unlike him, he actually supports Ukraine joining the Union and even visited Kiev at the beginning of the war to express support.

A problematic and unexpected factor may also emerge in the east of the European Union – in Bulgaria: Roman Radev, the former president who founded a new party and is running in the parliamentary elections. According to the polls, he may win after years of political instability in the country. Radev has already caused concern among EU countries when he said that Ukraine’s fate in the war against Russia was “decided” and opposed increasing military aid. His positions even led to a public confrontation with Ukrainian President Zelensky.

Orban’s departure does not necessarily herald the end of conflicts within the European Union. Even if one central figure steps down from the stage, a series of other leaders may continue to challenge the European consensus and make decisions difficult, especially on sensitive issues such as relations with Russia and support for Ukraine.