They estimate that almost 20% less wheat will be planted in the core zone

And one of the biggest drops would occur in the core zone, where the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) projected a drop in the area to be implemented of 17%, equivalent to about 300,000 hectares less to 1.5 million hectares.

“The surveys in recent weeks of agronomists and producers in the region They are forceful and they express the desire and need to maintain the same wheat area as last year, but that will not be possible,” indicated the BCR.

Although the water conditions are in place for another great cereal campaign, the economic equation is not, and this is due to the rising cost of a key input: the urea.

In this sense, the stock exchange entity explained that the big problem is the change in the urea/wheat ratio that went from 2.6 to 4.1 in one year (it went from US$540 to US$890 per ton), a product, in large part, of the sharp rise in the price of fertilizers as a result of the war in the Middle East.

“The numbers prevail and even if you want to, you can’tsince in rental situations, that is, in 70% of cases, the impact of the cost of urea mainly puts the yield of indifference at 46 quintals per hectare (qq/ha),” said the work of the Rosario Stock Exchange.

The 2026/27 final campaign starts with tight numbers compared to last year. Although the expected price at harvest is slightly above that of April 2025 — US$ 217 vs. US$ 206 per ton — Rising costs, especially fertilizers, hit profitability.

According to the entity, a target yield of 40 qq/ha and a harvest price of US$ 217 per ton, the net margin after taxes is just US$ 65 per hectare in its own field. In rented land the equation shows a loss of US$ 128 per hectare.

“Today you need 37 qq/ha in your own fields and 46 qq/ha (considering taxes) on rented land. In other words, to tie the game and not lose money, you have to achieve very, very good performances. But exceeding 150 kilometers of freight, the numbers exceed 50 quintals: in General Pinto they calculate 54 qq/ha,” the entity stated.

Likewise, the year-on-year comparison shows a significant deterioration: in owned fields the drop is around US$60 per hectare, while in rented fields it exceeds US$100.

On the other hand, the progress of soybean harvest work reached 43% of the area, marking the biggest delay in the last 10 years; At this point about 80% should have been collected.

The biggest problems are concentrated in areas most compromised by the drought at the beginning of the year and the current excesses, where plants with leaf retention, regrowth, high grain humidity, impossibility of entering the plots and low sectors that are still flooded are combined.