The price of energy could rise +24% this year – The worst-case scenario is even bleaker

The World Bank predicts that the price of energy will rise by 24 percent this year and rise to its highest level since 2022, when Russia began its war of aggression in Ukraine.

It is the World Bank’s energy index, which includes the prices of Australian coal, Brent crude oil and natural gas in Europe, Japan and the United States.

The reason behind the increase in energy prices is the war in the Middle East, which began when the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February. According to the World Bank, the war has caused the biggest shock in history to the oil supply.

The World Bank predicts that the prices of commodities will increase by 16 percent in 2026. The increase will be accelerated by the sharp increase in the cost of energy and fertilizers, as well as the record high prices of several key metals.

The average price of Brent oil is forecast to be 86 dollars per barrel in 2026, compared to 69 dollars in 2025. The forecast assumes that the worst disruptions will end in May and that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-war levels by the end of the year.

The price shock may get even worse

Commodity prices may rise even more if hostilities escalate or war-caused supply disruptions last longer than anticipated.

In 2026, the average price of Brent oil could rise to as high as $115 per barrel in a scenario where critical oil and gas facilities suffer further damage and export volumes slowly recover.

The price of Brent reference oil was already at 126 dollars per barrel on Thursday morning, April 30. The price has doubled since January.

“The war will hit the world economy in cumulative waves: first as an increase in the price of energy, then as an increase in the price of food, and finally as higher inflation, which raises interest rates and makes debt even more expensive”, World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill says in the announcement.