Supermedia AGI/Youtrend, the center-right is growing again. FdI and Lega drive the comeback

The centre-right is growing again, recovering one point in the last two weeks: it is above all the coalition that is driving it Lega e Brothers of Italyincreasing respectively by 0.5 and 0.4 points. On the contrary, the wide field loses more than half a pointpenalized above all by a drop of 0.7% for the 5 Star Movement, and thus almost eliminates its advantage over the centre-right. In the in-depth analysis we will also take stock, with data in hand, of the local elections on Sunday 24th and Monday 25th May.

In detail, Fratelli d’Italia rises to 28.2%, recovering four tenths compared to two weeks ago. The Democratic Party remains essentially stable at 22.2%, while the 5 Star Movement retreats more markedly, falling to 12.5% ​​and losing seven tenths in the same period of time. In the centre-right, the League is also growing, rising to 7.1% (+0.5%), while Forza Italia confirms itself above 8%. Among the smaller forces, stability prevails, starting with the Green-Left Alliance at 6.5%, Futuro Nazionale at 3.6% and Azione at 3%.

Overall, the picture outlined by Supermedia is that of a substantial balance between the two main camps: the broad camp stands at 45.2%, against 44.9% for the centre-right. An extremely small margin which, from a statistical point of view, does not allow us to identify a clear favorite in the event of political elections. A scenario that contributes to fueling the debate on the electoral law, which has returned to the center of political debate in recent weeks, especially after the center-right’s relaunch of the hypothesis of introducing a majority bonus for the coalition with the most votes, provided that it exceeds 40%.

If the next political elections were to be held in conjunction with the 2027 local elections – or even before – the next electoral test will be represented by the municipal elections of 24 and 25 May, which will involve 743 municipalities in 17 regions (in Valle d’Aosta, Trentino-Alto Adige and Sardinia voting will take place on different dates). These are local consultations which are unlikely to be interpreted on a national level, both due to the limited number of municipalities involved – less than 10% of the total – and because very different dynamics impact the administrative elections compared to those of the national elections. Some challenges, however, deserve particular attention.

Among the 743 municipalities voting, 116 have more than 15 thousand inhabitants and will therefore be able to go to the run-off on 7 and 8 June in the event that no candidate reaches 50% plus one of the valid votes in the first round. Of these, 18 are provincial capitals: in the previous round the centre-left had won 8 mayors, the centre-right 5, while the other 5 were the expression of civic coalitions or alternative alignments.

The most relevant match is that of Venice, the only regional capital called to vote and the most populous municipality among those involved. Here the center-right is focusing on Simone Venturini, the outgoing councilor called to take up the legacy of Luigi Brugnaro, unable to run again after two consecutive terms. The center-left instead fields Andrea Martella, senator and regional secretary of the Democratic Party.

Other capitals in which the outgoing mayor cannot run again due to the limit of two consecutive terms are Trani (Amedeo Bottaro, centre-left), Mantua (Mattia Palazzi, centre-left), Arezzo (Alessandro Ghinelli, centre-right) and Enna (Maurizio Dipietro, centrist area). In Chieti and Agrigento, however, the incumbents – Diego Ferrara for the centre-left and Francesco Miccichè for the centre-right – could have re-presented themselves, but the respective coalitions chose different candidates.

In five other capitals the mayor elected in the previous round does not stand for re-election because he resigned before the end of his mandate. This is the case of Vincenzo Napoli in Salerno, who officially left for “political reasons”, effectively paving the way for Vincenzo De Luca’s re-nomination to lead the city after his regional experience. In Reggio Calabria, Fermo and Pistoia, however, the outgoing mayors – Giuseppe Falcomatà, Paolo Calcinaro and Alessandro Tomasi respectively – left office after being elected to their respective regional councils; Calcinaro also joined the Marche council as health councilor. The case of Prato is different, where PD mayor Ilaria Bugetti resigned following an investigation into corruption.

In the remaining six capitals, however, the outgoing mayors are standing for re-election: Giovanna Bruno in Andria and Mauro Gattinoni in Lecco for the centre-left, Federico Basile in Messina for South calls North and Sandro Parcaroli in Macerata for the centre-right. Finally, in Avellino and Crotone, Laura Nargi and Vincenzo Voce, elected in the previous round as civic members, present themselves this time with the support of the centre-right. Furthermore, both Basile and Nargi are running again despite not having reached the natural end of their mandate, having left the office early.

NB: the variations in brackets indicate the deviation compared to the Superaverage of two weeks ago (7 May 2026).

NOTE: The Youtrend/Agi Supermedia is a weighted average of national polls on voting intentions. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys carried out from 7 to 20 May, was carried out on 21 May based on the sample size, the date of completion and the data collection method. The surveys considered were carried out by the institutes Demopolis (publication date: 20 May), Demos (8 May), EMG (14 May), Only Numbers (13 and 14 May), Piepoli (15 May), SWG (11 and 18 May) and Tecnè (8 and 16 May). The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it.