Question marks surrounding the ‘second Oreshnik missile’ in the Ukraine attack

Ukraine’s Air Force Command announced on May 24 that Russia had attacked the country with a medium-range ballistic missile carrying an Oreshnik hypersonic warhead, 5 Kinzhal and Zircon hypersonic missiles, 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and S-400 anti-aircraft bullets converted for ground attack, 54 Iskander-K, Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, and 600 autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). hunt and bait traps.

The Oreshnik missile crashed into the city of Bila Tserkva, about 80 km from the capital Kiev, most likely the target was the military airport of the same name. The Russian Ministry of Defense later confirmed that the Oreshnik missile targeted “command and control facilities and enemy air bases”.

However, this may not be the only Oreshnik projectile launched by Russia during the raid. Video captured from a surveillance camera shows a series of light streaks similar to Oreshnik warheads falling into the northern area of ​​the city of Donetsk, capital of the province of the same name, at 0:59 a.m. on May 24, about 17 minutes before the city of Bila Tserkva was hit.

“The first missile seems to have encountered a problem and fell in a Russian-controlled area in Donetsk province, specifically east of the strategic stronghold of Avdeevka. This was determined through geolocation, based on the angle of view in the video, and the falling speed of the warheads,” said AMK Mapping, an X account specializing in tracking open-source intelligence data on hostilities.

This account believes that Russia may have decided to launch a second missile after discovering a problem with the first one.

According to the newspaper Euromaidan Press of Ukraine, one of the two Oreshnik missiles hit the area controlled by Russia in Donetsk province, while the other crashed into Kiev province.

Rybar, a social network account associated with the Russian military and often used as an alternative source of information for Moscow’s official statements, also stated that the country’s forces launched two Oreshnik missiles during the dawn raid campaign on May 24.

However, Rybar believes that the first missile hit the area near the Slavyansk – Kramatorsk “fortress belt” that Ukraine controls in Donetsk province, specifically “infrastructure and solid structures that the Ukrainian army regularly uses to arrange supply depots and command posts”.

Kim Hovik, a member of the open source intelligence data monitoring network Faytuks News, said that Ukraine announced that only one Oreshnik missile was fired in the raid because “the target could not be detected or the location where the warhead landed could not be reached”.

Military site Defense Express of Ukraine questioned the Oreshnik missile targeting Bila Tserkva. “It is possible that the bullet did not hit the target, because the main target of the coordinated raid at that time was the capital Kiev. However, the possibility that Russia has a plan to attack targets in Bila Tserkva, such as the airport, cannot be ruled out,” this website said.

On May 25, Ukrainian media published images believed to be “the scene of the Oreshnik missile’s strike”, showing many warehouses being destroyed. The Kiev Oblast Military Authority said a brothel and buildings of an unnamed business were damaged.

Defense Express believes that this is a sign that the Oreshnik missile’s attack “missed the target”.

Fighter Bomber, the account of a Russian fighter pilot, hinted at the possibility that this is where the underground bunker of Ukrainian forces is located.

“The warehouse area is located close to the Bila Tserkva air base. The closest distance between this location and the taxiway, also considered a target, is only about 50 m. Ukraine publicly released images of the ruins of the warehouse area, but did not want to show close-ups of the deep hole created by the warhead. That is something worth pondering,” this account wrote.

This is the third time Russia has launched Oreshnik missiles into Ukraine. The projectile was first used in November 2024 in the raid on the Phuong Nam Machine Manufacturing Factory, a facility specializing in the production of booster rockets, ballistic missiles and liquid fuel for missiles, in response to Ukraine using Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles provided by the West to attack Russian territory.

The second raid occurred in January, in which the target was the city of Lviv in western Ukraine. Russia announced that this was an attack in retaliation for Ukraine “launching a UAV at the residence of President Vladimir Putin”.

The latest attack took place after Mr. Putin ordered the Russian military to respond to Ukraine’s raid on a vocational college in the town of Starobelsk in Lugansk province, killing 21 people and injuring dozens. Ukraine denied the accusations, saying the target was a command post of the elite Rubikon drone unit in the Starobelsk region.