The president has been waiting for an answer to his proposal for two weeks • The attack carried out in response to the shooting down of the helicopter was intended to exert pressure without closing the negotiation path • “If the pilots had been killed, we would be in a completely different place,” said a senior American • Even hours before the attack, the US tried to get answers from Iran – in vain • According to the senior, the agreement is still on the table, but “the president is ready to make the Iranians pay a price if they continue to drag their feet”
The factor that led to the strikes against Iran ordered by President Trump was the downing of an American helicopter, but behind the scenes Trump became increasingly frustrated by the nearly two-week wait for an Iranian response to his latest proposal – a response that never came, two senior American officials said.
Why is this important?
- According to an American official, the attacks carried out yesterday evening were intended, on the one hand, to return leverage to the US in negotiations with Iran, but on the other hand, to be measured and targeted so that no one would be killed and the path to reaching an agreement would not be closed.
- Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran today in an attempt to get the talks back on track and reduce the remaining gaps between the US and Iran.
- As the Qatari and Iranian mediators met today, Trump made new threats to attack Iran within hours.
- “We’re going to hit them hard again today, in case you missed it because you don’t turn on the TV, and we’ll see what happens with the agreement,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
- Trump said Iran “treated us like suckers” and “pulled us by the nose” during the talks. “They just kept pulling us – over and over and over,” he said.
The helicopter crash and Trump’s decision to attack
- When Trump decided to order a military response, the US still did not know for sure whether Iran shot down the helicopter on purpose.
- Two senior White House officials said that even if the helicopter crash was the result of an unintended collision with an Iranian drone, the US had to respond to make it clear that Iranian activity in the Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable.
- “If we didn’t respond, it would make us look weak and also hurt our position in the negotiations with Iran,” said one of the senior American officials.
- However, the two officials clarified that the American strikes were “proportionate and targeted”, and that they were directed against radars and control systems of Iranian UAVs, while deliberately avoiding killing Iranian soldiers.
- A few hours before the American attacks yesterday, the White House tried once again to get clear answers from the Iranians regarding Trump’s latest proposal, but did not receive any.
- A senior American said the White House made it clear to the Iranians that “time is running out.” The Iranians replied that they still had no answer and warned that if the US attacked, Iran would respond.
- At around 5:00 PM ET yesterday, as the US warplanes were on their way to carry out the strike, the White House relayed messages to the Iranians that the targets would be military installations only.
- “We told the Iranians that if the pilots had been killed, we would be in a completely different place today,” said an American official.
- The Iranians responded to the American attacks with their own measured and limited response and did not break the tools.
The Iranians let Trump wait
- Trump might have completed a preliminary agreement with Iran at the end of last month, if he had approved the outline agreed upon by his representatives in the talks with the Iranians.
- Instead, after a situation room meeting with his national security team on May 29, he sent the Iranians a request for amendments to two clauses in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end the war.
- A senior American official said that Trump was ready to grant the Iranians a significant concession and agree for the first time that Iran’s stock of enriched uranium would be diluted (“down blended”) on Iranian territory, under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), instead of physically going abroad.
- In return, Trump requested that the dilution process be completed within 60 days and that Iran would undertake within the framework of the memorandum of understanding not to collect tolls or interfere with vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told mediators and the US that he would need 4-5 days to pass the request through the Iranian decision-making mechanism and return with an answer, according to a regional source involved in mediation and an American senior official.
- During nearly two weeks of diplomatic waiting, Trump became increasingly frustrated by the negative coverage in the liberal media surrounding his assurances that a deal was imminent, and by criticism in the conservative media that he was not tough enough on the Iranians.
- A senior US official said Trump’s frustration grew when the Iranians said in private talks and in public that they expected to receive some of their frozen assets in advance, before fulfilling their obligations under the deal.
- According to the same source, Trump was not ready for that. However, he noted that the Iranians would be able to receive the frozen funds if they take the steps the president demands of them regarding the nuclear program.
The escalation between Israel and Iran complicates the situation
- The members of the American negotiating team and the regional mediators warned the Iranians several times during the last 12 days that they must come back with an answer before various factors in the region who want to sabotage the negotiations take steps that would undermine the situation, or before a tactical incident in the field leads to escalation.
- Last Saturday, Araqchi told regional mediators that he had forwarded the Iranian response to Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei for approval, and expressed hope that he would be able to forward it to the Trump administration on Sunday, but a day later the situation escalated: Israel attacked Beirut, Iran launched a missile attack against Israel, and Israel responded with attacks in Tehran.
- “We told the Iranians that they made a big mistake when they launched the attack against Israel, because they gave Bibi a golden opportunity to sabotage the negotiations,” said a regional source involved in the talks.
- Two regional sources said that the US and Iran were close to an agreement before the escalation between Israel and Iran, but afterwards the Iranians did not want to be seen as giving in to Israeli attacks.
- A senior Israeli official claimed that the Iranian conduct reflects the fact that Khamenei and his senior commanders felt that they had the upper hand after the last round of fighting with Israel.
- The helicopter incident further complicated the situation.
behind the scenes
- During the last two days, Iranian and American officials held separate talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, according to a regional source.
- The Qataris tried to organize a tripartite meeting in Doha yesterday morning to discuss the remaining differences, but the Iranians refused to meet face-to-face.
Why pay attention?
- Qatari mediators went to Tehran today for talks with Araqchi and other senior Iranian officials in an attempt to restart the negotiations.
- Two senior American officials expressed hope that the attacks carried out yesterday will help make the Iranians move forward and respond to Trump’s offer.
- Trump’s public threats today were also part of an attempt to get the Iranians to give the Qataris clear answers.
- “The agreement is still on the table, but the president is ready to make the Iranians pay a price if they continue to delay and drag their feet,” said an American official.
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