Inflation changed trend: dollar, fuel and food, the keys to the decline

These are two indicators that have been wanting. In the first case, the JP Morgan index that measures the excess cost of debt was moving in the area of ​​450/500 points for several weeks, and finally on Wednesday night it received the push it was missing with the improvement of the grade from the S&P rating agency.

Inflation with May data threads two consecutive losses, after ten consecutive months of rising or stagnant records. The data was surprising because the consulting firms were predicting a few tenths higher, between 2.3% and 2.5%.

Going forward, preliminary data for June shows that The food category, the one with the greatest weight in the CPI, could remain controlled. The measurement by the consulting firm LCG shows that there were increases of 0.1% in the food basket in the first week of June and 0.6% in the second.

The evolution of food prices is marked by seasonal factors, which especially affect fruits and vegetables and sometimes the supply of meat, but it also has a direct line with what consumption shows. With salaries delayed, there is little room for remarks.

There is also no tension on the exchange rate, which has lagged behind prices so far this year and has not rebounded despite the fact that the Central Bank has had more than 100 consecutive rounds of purchases and has already taken US$ 10,609 million in what you seeto 2026. This holds because The supply of foreign currency continues to flow: to the traditional contribution from the countryside this year, that of mining and energy was added, plus debt placements from the private sector.

In turn, from LCG they maintain that “inflation is once again parked in the area of ​​2% monthly, leveraged on the exchange rate anchor, commercial openness and poor activity that does not enable the distributive bid.

The two consecutive declines in inflation excite the Government that this time the decline will be sustained. Last year there was a slowdown processwhich led the CPI to touch 1.5% in May, then start with an upward trend to 3.4% in March of this year.

Will this time be different? One of the factors that drove prices last year was the jump in the dollar, which rose amid strong pre-election demand for currency. Added to this was the tariff recomposition.

Now, the exchange process seems to be more on track. The question is whether the Government will take advantage of the slowdown in inflation to let the dollar run, amid sectoral claims for loss of competitiveness, or will keep it on short rein to accelerate the decline in prices.

And regarding rates, although there are still corrections, the Government monitors the issue closely. For example, it took several measures in the last two months so that the jump in the price of a barrel of oil generated by the war between the United States and Iran is not transferred to the pumps. Key here was YPF’s position, which implemented a mechanism to absorb international price volatility, in a scheme known as a “buffer” that will remain in place at least until the end of the month. This was noted in the May index, where The transportation sector rose only 2% after having risen 4.4% in April.

For the economist Fernando Marull, who was correct with the projection of 2.1% for May, June will drill 1.9%. Until now, the market consensus represented in the Market Expectations Survey placed it at 1.9% only in August. But with the Indec data from May, private projections will be recalculated downwards. And the focus will no longer be when the 2% is drilled, but how sustainable the deceleration process is.

The consulting firm ACM states that “for the remainder of 2026, goods are expected to continue acting as the main anchor of the disinflation process, in a context of a relatively stable exchange rate and greater trade openness, factors that are moderating the dynamics of tradable prices. In contrast, Inflation in services, and particularly in public service rates, would continue to show greater momentum, driven by the continuity in the correction of relative prices and the reduction of subsidies”.

For Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Consultores, he indicates that with the May data “the upward trend brought by inflation was broken, but We should not think that inflation will continue to decline linearly now. and up to 0.2% it will not stop. “What the experience of these last two years has shown us is that there can be twists and turns.”