The largest Ukrainian drone attack against Moscow Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, it has burned down a refinery, forced the cancellation or delay of more than 520 flights and caused a new threat to the Kremlin. The bombing came just days after the close of the G7 summit, in which Western leaders agreed to increase pressure on Russia to put an end to the conflict, which has now lasted more than four years.
The West moves chips, Ukraine is not the winner
For Miguel Ángel Rodríguez Mackay, Peruvian internationalist and former Minister of Foreign Affairs, the attack should not be interpreted solely as retaliation for the recent Russian bombings of kyiv. In his opinion, behind the offensive there is a broader strategy promoted by the West to increase pressure on Moscow and push it towards a negotiation.
“It is clear to me that they are looking for ways to pressure Russia to once and for all sit down at a long and relaxed table to negotiate the end of the war.“, he points out to El Comercio.
The specialist considers that an operation of this magnitude would hardly have been possible without the support of the United States and its allies. “Ukraine’s war capacity without tactical support from the West seems to be a suicidal military action“, he states.
According to Mackay, the recent support expressed by the G7 should be read precisely in that key. Rather than seeking a Russian military defeat on the battlefield, the Western powers would be trying raise political, economic and strategic costs to force the Kremlin to sit at a dialogue table.
International recognition
In that sense, he maintained that The attacks do not aim to modify Russian territorial claims over the Donbas or to recover occupied territories by force.. “kyiv’s attacks on Russia are not to change Russia’s claims on the Donbass, but to once and for all put it at the negotiating table.“, indica.
Once the talks have started, he considers it likely that the negotiations will end recognizing part of the territorial gains obtained by Moscow during the last few years. In his opinion, Russia would definitively consolidate control of Crimea, annexed de facto in 2014, and obtain its international recognition. In addition, it would manage to maintain a dominant position over large areas of the Donbass, especially in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
“That will end up tipping the balance in favor of Russia, with an agreement backed by some mechanism of international legality, to which Ukraine will have to adapt depending on Russian intentions and the conditions promoted by the United States.” says Mackay.
“There will be a distribution of these claims,” adds Mackay, who believes that an eventual negotiated solution will force both kyiv and Moscow to give up part of their initial aspirations to reach an agreement to end the war.
However, the picture is far from simple. According to the AFP agency, After the bombing, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that Moscow will continue to carry out regular grouped attacks against Ukraine, a sign that the Kremlin has no immediate intention to reduce the intensity of the war.
For Mackay, the outcome of the conflict will continue depending less on military advances on the ground than on the ability of Washington, kyiv and Moscow to reach a political agreement. The attack on Moscow, he maintains, could be an effective pressure tool, but, in light of events, it is still far from guaranteeing a definitive change of course in a war that has already become one of the longest and bloodiest in Europe since the Second World War.
Perfect triangulation
For better or worse, the international situation could also turn out to be favorable for Donald Trump. Less than five months from midterm elections In the United States, the president seeks to show results in some of the main sources of global tension. In this context, the negotiations with Iran, the pressure on Hamas and the efforts to find a solution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are part of the same foreign policy strategy.
For Mackay, Washington has a special interest in closing these fronts simultaneously. “The United States is indeed eager to close the processes: to reach peace with Hamas, then with Iran, and then with Russia“, he claims.
The former minister believes that, if the White House makes significant progress in the three scenarios, Trump could present them as a demonstration of international leadership on the eve of the elections. “It will be a perfect triangulation in American international relations“he says, referring to the conflicts in Gaza, Iran and Ukraine.
Finally, Mackay also does not believe that the United States is going to abandon its European partners or drastically reduce its commitment to NATO. In his opinion, Washington’s periodic warnings about a possible withdrawal of troops are part of a strategy of diplomatic pressure on its allies, but do not reflect a fundamental change. “The United States will never withdraw 100% of its forces from Europe“, held. “By no means will it leave Europe orphaned”he added.
https://slotsgem-germany.com/problems
https://slotsgem-germany.com/promocode
https://slotsgem-germany.com/review
https://slotsgem-germany.com/slots
https://slotsgem-germany.com/support
https://slotsgem-ireland.com
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/apk
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/app
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/bonus
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/casino
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/deposit
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/download
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/faq
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/legal
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/login
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/mirror
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/mobile
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/payments
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/problems
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/promocode
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/review
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/slots
https://slotsgem-ireland.com/support
https://slotsgem-denmark.com
https://slotsgem-denmark.com/apk