Ten years of Brexit, how the British economy has changed (for the worse).

After 10 years of Brexitthe anniversary of referendum falls on Wednesday 24 June, theeconomy of Great Britain did not benefit from the choice to leave Ue. Also the stability of the political system seems to have been affected: from 2016 to today they have taken turns 6 premier several a Downing Streetwith the current Labor prime minister Keir Starmer which appears increasingly in the balance.

The Brexitbased on data collected at the end of 2025, estimated a study of National Bureau of Economic Researchreduced the UK GDP of the 6-8%The investments of the 12-13%l’employment of the 3-4% and the productivity of the 3-4%. A negative scenario to which the Covid pandemicil conflict in Ukraine and those in Middle East.

Negative economic factors

The research identifies four channels through which the Brexit has negatively affected theUK economy: a persistent increase inuncertaintywhich particularly weighed on the investments; the lower demand for goods and services; the reduction of investments in innovation e IT; the most productive companies with greater international exposure were among the most damaged.

The timing of the release

Another critical factor, according to the paper, was the duration of theexit processwith a transition period lasting until December 31, 2020 and negotiations onNorthern Ireland which lasted until 2023. In fact, the process of Brexit was only fully concluded in 2024.

The Nber analysis

“These factors may have been more important than the effects of the reduction commercial exchanges with theUEat least initially”, analyzes the research ofNber.

Le stime dell’Office for Budget Responsibility

L’Office for Budget Responsibilityhowever, last year estimated that the post-Brexit between United Kingdom el’Uereduced the productivity long-term of 4% compared to staying in Europa. The increase of non-tariff barriers to trade between United Kingdom e UEwe read in the study, “represents a further obstacle to the exploitation of comparative advantage“. The document emphasizes that in the long run, “both the exports that the imports will be less than approximately 15%” compared to what they would have been if the United Kingdom had remained inUe. And that the new ones trade agreements with countries outsideUE “they will not have a significant impact and any effect will be gradual.”

The opinion of the Bank of England

In a podcast with Sky Newsin recent days the governor of Bank of England Andrew Bailey proposed a detailed evaluation of the first 10 years of the Brexit. “I think the level of activity and economic growth was inferior. The reason is that if you reduce the UK markets, the size of those we trade with, then we reduce our markets by exportthis tends to have a negative impact on growth, on productivity and the size of the market. We learned it from Adam Smith“.

The effects on the City

From another point of view, Bailey argues, “if we go back ten years, people said this would be very bad for the City in Londraper i financial markets British. Now, I’m not pretending it was good, but in my opinion it wasn’t nearly as bad as many predicted at the time.”

The perception of citizens

A survey carried out byEuropean Council on Foreign Relations notes that respondents report negative effects of Brexit on the cost of living (66%), on theeconomy (65%), on opportunities for young people (57%) and onillegal immigration (56%). Even the 58% of those who voted for Brexit believe that it has worsened illegal immigration, a central theme of the referendum campaign. When asked what the main benefits of Brexit are, by far the most frequent answer is “I don’t know“. The second most frequent is “none of the above“.

The economic prospects

In March the estimates for the growth of Great Britain In the 2026 have been revised downwards by +1,4% a +1,1%a cut that reflects thegeopolitical uncertainty widespread. Last week the BoE has kept unchanged the interest rate banking 3,75%the central bank however noted that the war in Middle East he interrupted i transport and the energy supplycausing the price to increase. THE’inflation she went down to the 2,8%but the estimate is that it will rise again due to the knock-on effects resulting from the increase in energy prices: “Higher bills could force businesses to raise their prices to cover costs.”

The debate on returning to the EU

After 10 years from leaving the Ue the movement takes holdRejoin Ue‘ to return to Europa. Il Financial Times notes that “progressives have been galvanized by the growing pressure to return toUE. However, the continent’s decision-making elite remains wary of the return of the United Kingdom nell’Union“. But any re-accession process of United Kingdom all’UE risks “prolonging beyond the five-year term of Parliament”. Among the reasons listed by the newspaper, “a long history of mistrust resulting from previous negotiations and the fact that Nigel Faragethe architect of Brexit, enjoys excellent popularity in the polls of British opinion”.

The Economist’s opinion

For theEconomistinstead, the referendum he changed the United Kingdom “in many small ways, mostly for the worse.” According to an analysis by the weekly la Brexit left the English”more divided, less influential e poorer than they would have been otherwise.”