In Russia, they are angry about Trump’s “change of direction”.

In Russia, the feeling of frustration towards the President of the United States, Donald Trump, is growing, after it seems that in the last few months there are signs of changes in his approach to the war in Ukraine. While in Moscow they hoped that Trump would promote an arrangement that would benefit Russian interests, now it seems that Trump’s attitude is becoming more positive specifically towards Ukraine.

In recent days, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused Washington of withdrawing from its role as an objective mediator in the war. According to him, the United States has abandoned positions that Trump himself expressed in the past and is now no longer acting in a balanced manner towards both sides.

Today (Wednesday) Lavrov attacked: “Putin compromised on the Ukraine issue during the meeting with Trump in Alaska in August, and agreed to the US proposals. Russia and the US agreed on how the war should end and how the discussions on the other issues should be conducted. Now Russia is hearing voices saying ‘this is not helping, you have to compromise again.'” Lavrov said that “the sanctions from the Biden era have been extended, new sanctions have been imposed and the US is selling weapons to Ukraine through European countries. The talks in Alaska did not even succeed in freeing the frozen Russian assets and resuming direct flights between the countries. Russia is ready to talk, but wants to know what happened at the G7 summit, the US did not update us on its position regarding Ukraine after the summit.”

These things come after, at the last G7 summit, Trump expressed a great impression of the scope and degree of success of the depth attacks carried out by Ukraine in Russian territory, according to a report in the Financial Times. Ukraine’s wave of attacks deep inside Russian territory in recent weeks includes attacks on military targets and infrastructure hundreds and thousands of kilometers away from the front lines, including areas near Moscow and oil refining facilities, as well as in the Siberian region. In addition, Ukraine managed to almost completely paralyze Russia’s control of the Crimean peninsula.

At the summit, Trump also agreed to tighten sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. For the Kremlin, this is another sign that the US administration is not moving in the direction Moscow had hoped for. All this is happening while Russia is suffering endless losses on the battlefield, is unable to translate the large investment into achievements on the ground, and is experiencing more and more blows in its immediate territory.

Lavrov’s criticism reflects growing frustration in Russia that the war, now in its fifth year, is not progressing toward an end on terms favorable to Moscow, as it might have seemed less than a year ago, after the Alaska summit. According to him, Russia will continue to focus on achieving its military goals under the assumption that all hopes for the United States to act as a fair mediator collapsed long ago.

In Washington, too, there is a different assessment from the one heard at the beginning of the year. If in the past American intelligence officials believed that Russia had a clear advantage on the battlefield, in recent months those same officials, as well as their counterparts in Europe, have begun to doubt that Moscow is able to achieve its goals. In fact, some estimates suggest that Russia will need several more decades, if at all, to complete its stated goal of conquering the entire Donbas region, given its current rate of progress.

American Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this month that Russia will not achieve the goals it set for itself at the beginning of the war, and may not even be able to militarily achieve the demands it is currently presenting as part of the negotiations.

At the same time, senior officials in Ukraine report encouraging signs in relations with Trump. According to them, after meetings held by President Volodymyr Zelensky and other senior officials with the American President, progress was made in talks regarding Patriot interceptor missiles and permits for the production and supply of Western weapons systems, including on Ukrainian soil.

A Ukrainian source said that Trump told Zelensky that he was impressed by Ukraine’s recent “military results,” according to the Financial Times. Zelensky himself noted that Trump and Rubio responded positively to the issue of approvals related to the Patriot missiles, and noted that the personal approval of the American president is now required to move forward.

In Europe, the perceived change in Trump’s position is being used to promote wider support for Ukraine. NATO officials point out that when Ukraine receives a sufficient supply of weapons, it is able to achieve great operational impact, and that Russian defense lines are not impenetrable.

One of the main factors for the change in the assessment of the situation is Ukraine’s ability to develop and operate new technologies, especially in the field of UAVs and long-range attacks. These achievements helped to slow down the advance of Russian forces and even cause heavy damage to infrastructure deep in Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the claims that Ukraine is managing to change the balance of power. Yesterday he claimed that the Ukrainian attacks are “an expression of desperation in the face of Russian progress on the front”. He claimed that their purpose is to undermine internal stability in Russia and create doubts about the activities of the Russian army.

Over the past few months, Russia has greatly increased the pressure on Belarus, its neighboring ally, to join the war in Ukraine in a more central role, the Wall Street Journal reported today. According to Russian and European sources, this year Moscow began a campaign of pressure aimed at turning Belarus into a base from which it would be possible to expand the fighting in Ukraine or carry out additional operations against NATO countries.

The move comes at a time when the Russian army is struggling to advance in eastern and southern Ukraine, and at a time when Putin is facing an unusual erosion of public support in Russia itself. Various sources estimate that the Kremlin is exploring options for escalation that may include wider use of the territory of Belarus.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko revealed that French President Emmanuel Macron warned him in a phone call against deepening involvement in the war. According to Lukashenko, Macron said that France had information that Belarus might increase its participation in the fighting.

Since the Russian invasion in 2022, Belarus has largely avoided direct participation in the war, although its territory was used by Russia at the beginning of the invasion. In the past year, Washington tried to bring Minsk closer to the West and away from Moscow, and in this context some of the sanctions imposed on it were eased.

However, in recent months Belarusian support for the Russian war effort has grown. Belarus sold fuel and refined petroleum products to Russia, and ground bases are operated on its territory that are used to direct Russian drones deep into Ukraine. Currently, about 2,000 Russian soldiers are stationed in the country.

This involvement has already attracted the attention of Kyiv. Zelensky threatened that if Belarus continues to allow the use of these bases, Ukraine will strike them itself. The Kremlin spokesman was asked how Moscow would react if Ukraine attacked Belarus, and said that “Russia will always stand by Minsk in the face of any threat.”

According to the report in the Wall Street Journal, Russia seeks, among other things, to expand the use of the territory of Belarus to launch drones towards Ukraine, and to extend the front line to the west in order to divert Ukrainian forces from more important areas in the east. Another option being considered is the use of Belarus for operations against its NATO neighbors.

At this point there are no signs that Russia is going to immediately launch a new operation through Belarus, but various sources say the option is definitely on the table. According to them, if such a decision is made, it will not necessarily include a conventional military attack, but may be a move designed to test NATO’s readiness or undermine Western support for Ukraine.