X-ray: the economy created more than half a million low-quality jobs since Milei took office

The Equilibra document shows that since the current government took office, the total employment figure has increased by 183 thousand people. “A value consistent with population growth”he points out. The numbers show that Total employment increased from the end of 2023 from 21,191,000 to 21,374,000. The figures on which the document is based come from the EPH of Indec (last quarter moving average) and the SIPA of the Ministry of Labor according to the latest data available (first quarter of 2026).

The increase in employment throughout Milei’s management is explained by an increase of 530 thousand jobs in low productivity services and a contraction of 347,000 between productive private and public jobs.

As compiled Balances the number of total public sector workers went from 3,656,000 to 3,526,000. And the one of private productive sector It went from 11,165,000 workers to 10,948,000 in three years. In the latter, there are 217,000 fewer people, which is explained by a decline in employment within the industry (175.000), construction (88.000), agro-mining-energy (2.000) y trade (1.000).

The opposite of this drop in employment was the creation of jobs concentrated in “low productivity services”as defined by Equilibra. There are 530,000 positions distributed in transportation and restaurants (327,000), commerce (160,000), domestic workers (23,000) and others (20,000).

The disappearance of the jobs mentioned above, but at the same time the emergence of these new jobs, make up a kind of revolving door in the labor market that many characterize with the expression “creative destruction” to describe the expansion of sectors at the forefront of technology over others that struggle to survive.

There are those who are convinced that this dynamic allows the economy to grow, housing part of the population without the entire economic system collapsing. In fact, a group of economists think that the Milei phenomenon shows something of this struggle: despite the creation of low-quality jobs, since the current president took office, GDP has grown (6.5%) and “is at a historical peak” according to Martín Rapetti, economist and director of the consulting firm Equilibra that did the work. This performance shows that the economy not only managed to grow while there were sectors that shrank, but that surpassed Milei’s starting point. The real GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2026 – they came out this week – record that The economy is today above the 2023 average (4.9%) and above the first quarter of 2023 (3.1%).

Also, there are economists who point out that the increase in low-quality employment is not a product of Milei’s policies but rather something prior. The economist Ramiro Castiñeira recalled in the week that “From 2011 to date, the Argentine population grew by 6 million inhabitants. In that period, 4 million joined the labor market. Half goes directly to informality and the other half is distributed between public employment and monotax.”.

The paradox is that the growth of Milei’s economy is contradictory to the ideas of the Government and many economists related to it: virtuous growth should be based on the expansion of capital and less on low-quality work. Today the opposite is happening with investment contracting for four consecutive quarters. Perhaps the explanation offered by the Government is the correct one: The cost of investing in machines and new technologies in Argentina is still very highhence it is more economical to grow by creating informal employment than to accumulate capital as in advanced or neighboring countries in the region.

“The transformation observed so far is far from being virtuous. The replacement of formal private employment with low-productivity self-employment it is not a sign of development”says Martín Rapetti, economist and director of Equilibra. “Could it perhaps be the reflection of a transitory cost towards a more productive economy?”

This week, Indec released unemployment data for the first quarter, where they reported that the unemployment rate was 7.8% in the main EPH agglomerations, slightly lower than the 7.9% a year ago.

“With the rebound in activity, for the coming months we project a lower unemployment rate, at levels of 7.5% by the end of the year”says Fernando Marull. However, he clarifies that “We do not see the “substitution effect” of informal and independent workers with salaried workers stopping in the short term”.

US Treasury Secretary Scotto Bessent wrote an important column this week in which he points out that “countries that reduce their economy only to consumption are not truly prosperous” pointing out that “advanced industry” is needed. A debate that is coming in Argentina.