Europe is gaining the Caucasus from Russia: it seeks to remove Armenia and Azerbaijan from their historical influence

Card playing in the region has been going on for decades. After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the independence of those former Soviet republics was not enough to prevent Moscow from consolidating its position as a dominant player in the region. That role was degraded since the wars in Chechnya and, above all, when the countries of the Caucasus saw that Moscow could use force to take away pieces of their territory (like Georgia).

The attack on February 24, 2022 in Ukraine seems to be the straw that broke the camel’s back and that gave more influence to the pro-European leaders or, at least, They want to get closer to Europe to depend less on the Kremlin. This has helped the European Union to increase its diplomatic and economic presence in the region, which until a few years ago was limited to certain development cooperation plans.

The expansion of the European Union to the center and east of the continent with the entry of 10 countries into the bloc in 2004 meant that the interests of those countries were taken into account and more looked towards the east. There the European Neighborhood Policy and the Eastern Partnership were born, frameworks where relations with those countries were expanding.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the scenario due to the break with the European Union and because Europe has sought to reduce its dependence on Russian energy as much as possiblediversifying gas pipeline corridors (essential in Azerbaijan) and improving its relations with countries that were moving towards democratic systems and that looked more towards Europe.

The 2023 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region accelerated political changes in defeated Armenia and showed that Russia was not fulfilling its role as an interposition force. After relying for decades on Russian security while its traditional enemy Azerbaijan leaned on Türkiye, Armenia pivoted when it sensed Moscow’s betrayal. The recent electoral victory in Armenia, against the Kremlin’s maneuvers, of a pro-European government led by Nikol Pasyihan, now opens the door to accelerate the country’s approach to the European Union.

When Russia imposed trade restrictive measures on Armenia, Europe responded by announcing economic aid packages and support for the private sector. Meanwhile, Europeans seek to diversify their trade and energy routes, putting much of the money into energy infrastructure that connects the region from Georgia to Türkiye. Europe sees Armenia as a transportation hub in the region. That is why he also managed to get Türkiye, after decades closed, to agree to open its border with Armenia.

The Europeans moved quickly in recent times when the Kremlin created economic problems for Armenia. When Moscow banned the sale of Armenian flowers in Russia, paralyzing a very lucrative economic sector for Yerevan, The European Commission moved quickly to find alternative buyers in Europe.

Von der Leyen’s trip to the region (on July 1 she will be in Baku and on July 2 and 3 in Yerevan) symbolizes that rapprochement. That Marta Kos, European Commissioner for Enlargement, travels with her is a signal to both the governments of the region and the Kremlin. The message that the European leader carries is that she will continue using its diplomatic and economic tools to anchor the region in Europe and move it away from Moscow’s control.

The European relationship with Azerbaijan is more complex due to the authoritarian nature of its government, but Brussels keeps it lubricated by the role of the Azeris as gas suppliers and because their attitude is key to maintaining the stability of the region.