Pig prices have plummeted, but retail meat remains high

According to records on July 1, the price of live pigs across the country continued to decrease by 1,000-2,000 VND compared to the previous day, down to 60,000-66,000 VND per kg. The South is the region with the lowest price, with Dong Thap and Ca Mau at 60,000 VND, Tay Ninh, An Giang, Vinh Long and Can Tho at 61,000 VND, and Dong Nai and Ho Chi Minh City ranging from 60,000-62,000 VND per kg.

At Hoc Mon wholesale market, the number of pigs arriving at the market reached 4,740 heads. The price of first-grade pigs is 64,000 VND per kg, second-grade pigs are 59,000 VND, down 13-14% compared to the peak of 72,000-74,000 VND at the beginning of the year. Accordingly, the price of pork pieces also decreased by 10,000-20,000 VND per kg, to 75,000 VND for type one and 70,000 VND for type two. Some wholesale snakehead products are down 6-8%, such as spare ribs at 145,000 VND, pork belly at 118,000 VND and lean meat chips at 110,000 VND per kg.

According to Mr. Doan, the price of live pigs decreased due to many factors. Hot weather causes demand for pork to slow down, while supply remains stable. Potential epidemics in pig herds make many farming households tend to sell them early to reduce risks.

In addition, the authorities’ increased inspection of livestock conditions, environment and food safety in recent times has also caused some farms to sell their herds early instead of continuing to raise them, increasing short-term supply.

While selling prices decreased, input costs increased. According to Mr. Doan, from the beginning of the year until now, the price of bran has increased many times, increasing the cost of raising about 300,000 VND per quintal (100 kg) of live pigs. With the current price around 60,000 VND per kg, many livestock households have started to lose money so they have to sell early to limit risks when prices are still trending down and diseases are still lurking.

In addition to domestic supply, the amount of imported meat also increased sharply. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in the first 5 months of the year, livestock imports reached 2.2 billion USD, up nearly 30% over the same period last year. The meat and edible by-products group alone reached more than 910 million USD, an increase of 26%. In the context of domestic meat prices being about 30-40% higher than many markets in the region, imported supply continues to create more competitive pressure on the domestic pig market.

Although pork prices have plummeted, consumers still cannot buy meat at cheaper prices. Surveys at the traditional markets of Xom Moi (An Hoi Dong ward), Ba Chieu (Gia Dinh ward) and Pham Van Hai (Tan Son Hoa ward), showed that baby ribs are still sold for 170,000-200,000 VND per kg, pork belly for 150,000-170,000 VND, lean ribs for 220,000-240,000 VND, and lean ribs for 220,000-240,000 VND. 140,000-150,000 VND and thigh meat 120,000-130,000 VND. This price is almost unchanged compared to the time when live pig prices peaked at the beginning of the year.

Ms. Hanh, a small trader at Xom Moi market, said that the price of live pigs has decreased but the price imported from the slaughterhouse has not decreased correspondingly, while input prices fluctuate continuously so sellers have not dared to adjust. According to her, if pork prices remain low for many consecutive days, retail prices may decrease accordingly.

According to businesses in the industry, a pig from the farm to the consumer usually has to go through 4-6 stages, going through focal points including traders, slaughterhouses, wholesale markets, small traders and markets or retail systems. Each level incurs costs and profits, while the reduction in hog prices is not immediately passed on to the final buyer. It is estimated that the costs and profits of intermediaries account for about 30-40% of the retail price. Therefore, meat prices on the market often lag about 7-10 days compared to the price of live pigs if the downward trend is maintained.

Mr. Guess believes that this is a situation that has lasted for many years. The price of live pigs at the farm fluctuates according to supply and demand, while the price to consumers is affected by many stages of distribution, so it often adjusts more slowly. “There was a time when the price of live pigs was only about 60,000 VND per kilogram, but many retail meats were still at 200,000-250,000 VND per kilogram,” he said.

According to him, live pig prices may still be under downward pressure when the market enters July – a period when consumer demand usually decreases on an annual basis. However, it is difficult to predict how much prices will fall.