La Jornada: After 19 months of decline, investment rose 5.1%

After 19 readings of falls at an annual rate, Mexico’s gross fixed investment, which represents the value of durable goods acquired by production units, rose 5.1 percent in April, its best annual variation since July 2024, when the effect of the large projects of the last administration was still being accounted for.

According to data reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), the fact that investment has broken the streak of declines that it had accumulated for more than a year and a half is due, above all, to the boost that residential construction and imported machinery had.

With seasonally adjusted figures, to make the periods more comparable due to calendar effects, the Monthly Indicator of Gross Fixed Investment (GFCF), which represents the value of durable goods acquired by production units, averaged 107.4 points in April, which represented a monthly rebound of 4 percent, the second consecutive, and its best month-to-month variation since November 2020.

By component, construction expenses rose 6.5 percent month-on-month in April, and machinery and equipment – ​​both domestic and imported – grew 2 percent month-on-month last April.

At an annual rate, construction expenses increased 8.8 percent in April, while machinery and equipment rose 0.9 compared to the fourth month of 2026.

Residential construction investment revived fixed investment, which rose 12.4 percent monthly, its best growth since August 2020, and 16.7 percent annually, its highest variation since March 2025. But it also supported machinery, equipment and other imported goods, 7.1 and 9.8 percent monthly and annually, in that order.

With original figures, without a calendar effect, investment grew 5.9 percent compared to April 2025, affected by the fall in national machinery and equipment. Meanwhile, from January to April there was a contraction of one percent compared to the same period last year.

Imported goods

Private consumption closed April with a growth of 2.1 percent, mainly due to the acquisition of imported goods. However, this indicator had an annual increase of 3.1 percent in March 2026.

According to Inegi, the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) stood at 113.7 points on average in April 2026, which represented a marginal advance of 0.1 percent monthly, after the previous rebound of 1.2 percent, with seasonally adjusted figures, to make the periods more comparable.

The monthly advance was explained by the consumption of domestic goods, which rose 1.1 percent in April compared to March, as services fell 0.1, but imported goods contracted 1.5 percent. Compared to April 2025, imported goods shot up 11.7 percent and domestic goods did not show any variation.

With original figures, without a calendar effect, Inegi specified that in the period January-April 2026, private consumption showed an increase of 2.2 percent annually; Imported goods rose 12.2 percent and domestic goods fell 0.3 percent. “The recovery of domestic demand is supported by poorly diversified pillars, with construction driving investment and imported goods explaining the dynamism of consumption, while national machinery and spending on domestic goods remain behind.

“Going forward, the key will be if this strength manages to be transmitted to productive investment and national consumption; if it does not occur, growth will continue to be exposed to exchange rate shocks and a slowdown in external demand, a relevant risk for the gross domestic product in the second half of 2026,” explained Gerónimo Ugarte, chief economist at Valmex.