La Jornada: Mexico and Canada, US partners, lead the IMF’s growth cuts

Mexico led the cut to the growth estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), only followed by Canada. The organization adjusted its forecasts for the global economy for this year and next, but in accumulated terms, the global outlook did not see a decline. In fact, the data show that the United States’ main trading partners are the most affected in their expansion prospects for this biennium.

In updating its growth projections, the IMF maintains that in Mexico “uncertainty will continue to limit productive activity”, so that for 2026, the organization reduced its growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to go from 1.6 to 1.2 percent, and for the next year, the cut of 0.3 percentage points resulted in a new forecast of 1.9 percent.

Regarding the global economy, for 2026 the IMF reduced its growth estimate by 0.1 percentage points and an expansion of 3 percent is now expected. For next year, the projections increased by 0.2, pointing to a global advance of 3.4 percent.

As a result, the organization pointed out that in accumulated terms – seen as a whole the data for this and the following year – the adjustments for the global economy leave the outlook “practically unchanged” with respect to what was presented in April.

On Wednesday morning, when asked about the adjustment in the growth prospects for Mexico, the Secretary of Finance and Public Credit, Édgar Amador Zamora, commented that a “general reduction to global estimates by the IMF” was reported. The agency did make a 0.1 percent decrease in its 2026 global forecast, but only 13 of 32 detailed countries had a cut, with Saudi Arabia leading the way.

Modest slowdown

“This modest slowdown reflects the effects of the war in the Middle East, partially offset by the accelerated momentum in demand in the global technology cycle thanks to advances in artificial intelligence and its adoption. The impact varies considerably depending on countries’ exposure to war and their position in the technological value chain,” the IMF detailed.

Just Saudi Arabia – one of the countries most affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a consequence of the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran – was the country with the deepest cut in its outlook for 2026, of 1.4 percentage points, but it is also the nation with the largest upward adjustment for next year, of one percentage point.

With this context, only five economies of those reported in the update of the economic outlook reflected a downward revision both this year and next, and already in accumulated terms, in the lead are Mexico and Canada, whose economies are exposed to the negotiation of the North American trade agreement (T-MEC).

In the case of Canada, the IMF cut its forecast by 0.4 percentage points, so that this country’s economy is now expected to advance 1.1 percent in 2026, and not 1.5 percent, as previously estimated. Also for next year, a cut of 0.2 percentage points was made, so instead of growing 1.9 percent, the expansion is now estimated to be 1.7 percent.

The other countries that, like Mexico and Canada, reflect a cut in their growth estimates, not only for this year, but also for the next, are the Philippines (0.2 and 0.3 percent, respectively), Germany (0.1 and 0.2) and the Netherlands (0.2 and 0.1 percent).