The finance executives of the most important companies in Argentina are divided between optimism about the progress of the economy and caution when making decisions. The need for the changes implemented by the Government, such as the macro stability and the decline in inflation, reach the “micro”appeared as the main deficit in the diagnosis of finance men and women on the first day of the 47th Annual Convention of the Argentine Institute of Finance Executives (IAEF).
The first clue was given by the 23rd Annual Financing and Investment Survey prepared by EY together with the IAEF. Although in general terms the results are optimistic regarding the future, the most critical data that the survey shows is the collapse in the labor projection: only 27.1% of the companies affirm that their investment plan for 2027 will demand more direct labor, marking the lowest record in the entire historical series of the survey. In parallel, 67.8% directly indicate that their disbursements will not move their staff, while 5.1% plan to reduce it.
The bulk of companies are not focused on increasing their productive capacity, but rather on adding efficiency. 70% of the investments will be concentrated in fixed assets and incorporation of technology (with the artificial intelligence and process automation as a central axis).
Furthermore, 44.1% of companies recognize that can still increase its sales with the installed capacity and current structure, which discourages any disbursement aimed at the physical expansion of plants or branches.
The survey reveals a recurring gap between discursive optimism for the future and the effective results of the balance sheet. In the last year, 50.8% of companies saw their sales fall in real terms and only 15.3% managed to grow.
Yes ok 67.8% now project a rebound by 2027the immediate precedent relativizes the goal: a year ago, 75% expected an increase in 2026 that finally ended with the majority of balances falling.
In terms of profitability, the picture is similar: in the last year, only 33.9% of those consulted improved their marginscompared to 32.2% who maintained them and 30.5% who saw them worsen. Moving forward, although 53% trust in an improvement, expectations have been decreasing compared to previous surveys (it was 57% last year).
Added to this operational situation is the rigidity of credit. Almost seven out of ten companies (69.5%) kept their financing needs stagnant, without vocation to take on debt.
Faced with high interest rates (26%) and uncertainty in the region (20%), companies are turning to their own resources: reinvestment of their own funds and self-financing lead the funding with 31.4%, followed by local banks (22.3%).
The capital market (9.9%) and financing from foreign financial entities (barely 1.7%) continue at marginal levels.
The president of the IAEF, Pablo Miedziakwarned about the risks of an economy that moves at two speeds. “There is two clocks running at the same time, and they run at different speeds. The first is the clock of reforms: a labor reform, a tax reform, the RIGI. That is measured in decades. The second is the clock on the box. That of the SME that pays salaries on the 4th of each month, that renews working capital at rates higher than those of the region. This clock is measured in days and weeks.”Miedziak said.
And he highlighted the political limit of the transition: “There is no sustainable reform without results that people see and impact your personal and family reality. “The risk of not calibrating the two clocks is that the pendulum will swing back.”
Along the same lines, the economist Daniel Artana warned that macroeconomic stability is a necessary but insufficient condition. He pointed out that investment in Argentina continues to stagnate at historically low levels and that productivity has been paralyzed for 20 years, which anticipates a reconversion process with winners and losers: “Some companies are going to reconvert, others are not; and that generates tensions and political costs.”
Asked what measures would provide predictability to unblock large projects, the executives pointed to the underlying variables: a clear and sustainable economic plan (27%), a tax reform (25%) and a stable exchange rate policy (20%).
In operational matters, the claim is direct and without intermediaries: 61% demand urgent tax and administrative simplification, while official tools such as development banks (2%) or investment promotion agencies (3%) are practically irrelevant for corporations.