An allusion to the elections in Israel? Polymarket missed the results in Serbia and Brazil

An example of this could be seen on the night between Monday and Tuesday, when Luiz Incio Lula da Silva won an unprecedented fourth term as president of Brazil, after reversing his deficit in the first round – and defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the second round. Polymarket predicted exactly the opposite result – and by a large margin.

In the beginning, the markets were actually in the right direction. “In the first round, Lula led most of the time, and shortly before the vote, Bolsonaro overtook him in Polymarket, as was the case in reality,” explains Prof. Moran Ofir from the Faculty of Law at the University of Haifa, who has also researched many issues in the prediction market. “However, in the second round, huge investments went into Bolsonaro and brought him to an 82% chance of winning, against Lula who stood at 18%.” In practice, the picture was completely opposite.

A similar thing also happened in Serbia. Until October 23, Polymarket gave a 70% chance for the prime ministership to the candidate Aleksandar Vucic. Towards the election, the percentages dropped to about 47%, but he was still the candidate with the highest chances. In practice, although it is still not clear who will be the prime minister, Vucic himself admitted the loss.

In conclusion, although Gadi Eisenkot and Ishar party! Leading the election market in the Israeli polymarket, but as you can see – there is no proof or sign of what will happen in the elections. Sometimes, as happened in Brazil and Serbia, it proves exactly otherwise.