European leaders will address peace talks for Ukraine and the replacement at the ECB without Sánchez in Dublin

The peace talks on Ukraine and the role that the EU must play in them will mark the summit that brings together the European heads of State and Government this week in Dublin in an event that the President of the Government, Pedro Sanchez, does not attend, and which will also be the first informal contact at the level of leaders regarding the replacement of Christine Lagarde as head of the European Central Bank, a position to which the Spanish Pablo Hernández de Cos aspires.

Although the informal summit of EU leaders this Friday was to be dedicated to the challenges of the governance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and how to take advantage of competitors such as the United States and China, the concern of leaders such as the Italian Giorgia Meloni about the lack of coordination of the Twenty-Seven in the face of the peace talks between Moscow and kyiv promoted by the United States has led the president of the European Council, António Costa, to include the matter on the agenda of this meeting and of the formal European Council in November.

The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is another of the leaders who has resorted to a letter to Costa demanding to address the need to have a permanent solution to kyiv’s financial needs and threatening to block an agreement on the post-2027 European budget if steps are not taken in that direction.

There will also be, according to sources from several delegations, the first contacts to decide between the former governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernández de Cos, and the Dutchman Klaas Knot as Lagarde’s replacement, an issue that the leaders want to close at the special European Council on November 26 and 27 in Brussels.

Like any informal meeting of leaders, explains a senior European diplomat, the Dublin European Council is a “propitious” setting to address in a relaxed manner key issues for the 27, such as “the balance within the ECB, because other upcoming vacancies at the top of the issuing authority will also come into play.

In this framework, sources from the Elysée point out, there have already been contacts between Macron and Merz to seek a balance and a shared vision not only in terms of the “people” but also the missions and objectives of the ECB, in order to ensure an “orderly” and “rapid” transition, which protects the necessary stability for the monetary institution.

TALKS ABOUT UKRAINE AND MAINTAINING SUPPORT

Regarding Ukraine, EU leaders will have the opportunity the day before to address the issue in a broader format, including with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, during the summit of the European Political Community that brings together nearly 50 European leaders this Thursday in Dublin.

This broader forum seeks to bring together the leaders of the continent twice a year – the next meeting will be in Zurich in April 20277 – to create synergies and cooperation frameworks, in a format designed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and which, on this occasion, will focus discussions under the motto “A strong, secure and connected Europe” on challenges such as the fight against drug trafficking, organized crime and new threats such as the use of disinformation to destabilize the container.

The British Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, will also be at this meeting, and, for the second time since this forum was launched in 2022, the Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, will attend, in a new sign of the will to bring Canada as close to the EU as possible without crossing the accession border.

Despite Von der Leyen’s efforts to point the way towards an “associate member” model at the recent EU-Canada summit, the final declaration did not go that far due to Germany’s rejection and the bloc limits itself to continuing to strengthen ties.