President Zelensky seems to want to focus on improving Ukraine’s position on the battlefield, before the US presidential election could turn things upside down.
The past few weeks have seen a dramatic shift in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Kiev seemingly signaling it will go all out to try to achieve the best possible outcome on the battlefield before the US presidential election in November could change its fate.
Earlier this month, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive in Russia’s Kursk province, seizing 100 villages and towns covering 1,300 square kilometers. Ukrainian forces are also looking to expand their offensive into neighboring Russia’s Belgorod province.
The surprise attack is turning into a longer-term campaign, although Kiev insists its goal is to establish a buffer zone on the border rather than permanently control Russian territory. At a press conference on August 27, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow had deployed 30,000 troops to the region, but had failed to stop the Ukrainian offensive.
In recent months, Ukraine has also targeted infrastructure inside Russia, such as airports, oil refineries, and ammunition depots. Last week’s Ukrainian drone attack reportedly came close to reaching Murmansk, a naval base in the Arctic Circle that houses many of Russia’s nuclear submarines, according to local officials.
On the night of August 27, a UAV attacked an oil storage facility in the Kamensky district of Rostov Oblast, causing a fire. Ten days earlier, an oil storage facility in the Proletarsk district of Rostov Oblast was also attacked, and the fire has not yet been completely extinguished.
Ukrainian soldiers fire mortars in the Donetsk region on August 17. Photo: AFP
The wide range of Ukrainian drones seems to be something Russian President Vladimir Putin could hardly have imagined in 2022, when he launched a war in his neighbor, observers say. Smoke and fire from attacks are no longer uncommon in western and southern Russia.
President Zelensky revealed that Ukraine has acquired new weapons that can increase its combat effectiveness: F-16 fighters delivered by NATO allies. This change is expected to help increase the strength of Ukraine’s air force in the coming months, helping to overcome Russia’s long-standing advantage of controlling the skies and freely bombing.
While Mr Zelensky is focused on the war, Mr Putin seems less focused on what is happening in Kursk. Russian forces continue to increase their offensive pressure on the Donetsk front in eastern Ukraine. Tens of thousands of Russian troops are closing in on the city of Pokrovsk, a strategic Ukrainian city in the east.
Mr. Zelensky admitted on August 28 that the situation in Pokrovsk is very difficult. Given the speed of Russia’s advance and Ukraine’s resilience, the city of Pokrovsk could be controlled by Russia in a few weeks, according to analysts.
After Pokrovsk, Ukraine has no major strongholds nearby to defend. The important city of Dnipro lies on the other side of the Zaporizhzhia region, about a two-hour drive away.
However, observers warn that unless the Kursk move really strains Russia to the point of weakening operations in Donetsk, Kiev still needs to strengthen its defenses on the eastern front, if it does not want Russia to control more territory.
“It appears that Mr. Zelensky is willing to take that risk and calculates that the damage Ukraine can do by attacking oil infrastructure and military targets in Russian territory is necessary and urgent,” said Nick Paton Walsh, an analyst at CNNsaid.
For now, the Kursk gamble has at least brought immediate victory to Ukraine, by solving two urgent problems: the will of NATO allies to provide weapons for the campaign and the morale of soldiers on the battlefield.
“He assessed that the loss of Pokrovsk may have been inevitable and a sacrifice so that Ukraine could pursue its goal of inflicting greater damage on Russia,” Walsh said.
President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media at an undisclosed location in Ukraine on August 4. Photo: AFP
The preoccupation with US politics was also evident when Mr Zelensky said this week that he would present his plan to win the conflict, possibly with massive drone strikes or long-range US-backed weapons, to President Joe Biden and the Democratic and Republican candidates.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a fierce battle as the race for the White House enters its final stretch. If Trump is re-elected, many fear the US will immediately withhold aid to Ukraine, forcing Kiev to seek an end to the conflict on Russia’s terms.
Therefore, analysts believe that by conducting the Kursk offensive and controlling the territory, Mr. Zelensky wants to create leverage in case Ukraine has to sit at the negotiating table with Russia.
The attack was also designed to demonstrate that the Ukrainian army was not invincible and not incapable of striking. This was not only to boost morale but also to convince allies, including the United States. The American public had begun to doubt Ukraine’s ability to win, and the Kursk offensive was designed to change that perception.
A Harris victory in November would also be seen as changing the dynamics of US support for Ukraine. The US could tighten sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports, which had been eased due to the need to keep energy prices low ahead of the election.
If Harris wins, the Kremlin will also be forced to reassess the administration it is up against. Trump has argued that Putin decided to launch the Ukraine campaign because he thought President Biden was weak and indecisive after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. But now Russia will be facing a new president and a completely different administration.
Ms Harris’s credibility with international alliances is unquestionable. She has served on the intelligence and homeland security committees and traveled extensively as vice president.
Philip H. Gordon, Ms. Harris’s national security adviser, has said that he believes “there are practical things the United States can and should do to reduce conflict.”
“It is likely that a Harris White House will at least have a new set of policies, setting out a different response principle to Ukraine’s call for help,” said David Hastings Dunn, professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, UK.
Observers believe that Mr. Zelensky sees now as an opportunity for Ukraine to bet, because after the US presidential election, everything can change very quickly.
“In the coming weeks, he may be willing to give up large swaths of vulnerable territory and cross all sorts of Russian red lines in pursuit of his goal of gaining an advantage over Moscow. But he must also hope that President Putin will feel the same real pressure,” Walsh said.