Will promote normalization? The solution of the former head of the Iranian Armed Forces to the Saudi nuclear demand

On the eve of the October 7 attack, relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia were more heated than ever, and it seemed that the road to a historic normalization agreement was already paved. About two weeks before the war in Gaza broke out, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, announced that the prospect of such an agreement seemed “serious for the first time”. The war did slow down progress, at least outwardly, but it did not stop the normalization process.

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One of the demands of the Saudis in exchange for recognition of Israel, is that the US agree to the establishment of a civilian nuclear program in the territory of the kingdom – a move that arouses controversy among the parties involved. A new document of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) authored by the former head of AMN and current head of the institute, Tamir Hyman, Dr. Yoel Gozhansky and Tomer Barak propose a solution to the issue: a regional nuclear fuel bank under international supervision in Saudi Arabia. “The proposal to establish a regional nuclear fuel bank in its territory should be discussed, which will reduce the risk of independent Saudi enrichment and the expansion of regional proliferation,” the researchers write.

Walking the nuclear path

The Saudis are interested in building a uranium enrichment facility. The goal, according to the Saudis, is to provide nuclear fuel at low enrichment levels for reactors to be built in the kingdom. In the document, the researchers estimate that the Saudis are not only facing a civilian nuclear program. Hyman, Dr. Gozhansky and Barak list a series of moves that illustrate that Saudi Arabia is already on the nuclear path: First, as far as is known, the kingdom cooperates with China in the mining and production of “yellow cake”: a concentrated uranium powder that is produced in a process of filtering uranium ore. For the Saudis There is no sufficient scientific and technological infrastructure for a nuclear program, but they have already begun to train local personnel, at the same time, in order to bridge the gaps, they employ foreign faculty.

Tender-wise, the Kingdom has already published a plan for two reactors: 1.4 GW each, near the border with the United Arab Emirates. As far as is known, China, Russia, France and South Korea submitted proposals on their behalf for the construction of the reactors. It should be noted that today, Argentina is already building a small research reactor for the Saudis, in which South Korea is also involved. The researchers point out that loading the nuclear fuel rods into the reactor will require the signing of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Riyadh has not signed the overall inspection agreement, but has signaled that as part of an agreement with the US, it will agree to closer inspection of Saba “A.

Facility supervised by the IAEA

The researchers point out that the establishment of a regional nuclear fuel bank requires several conditions: the enrichment plant will be built by an international consortium, with the Kingdom not having more than 50% of the project; The plant will also produce the raw material for the enrichment facility, with its product being the chemical compound suitable for nuclear fuel, but no additional compounds will be produced; Strict supervision will be applied to all Saudi nuclear activity, including uranium mining; The Saudis will also be required to agree to the construction of a nuclear fuel stockpile on their land under international ownership and supervision, to be used by all Middle Eastern countries – including Iran.

Hyman, Gozhansky and Barak explain that the establishment of the fuel bank has several advantages: curbing nuclear proliferation, since such a facility is expected to meet demands on behalf of the countries of the region to enrich uranium themselves; The facility will be under IAEA supervision and the US will be involved in its establishment and operation – and not China or Russia; Mohammed bin Salman will enjoy international prestige from the location of the facility; And, there will be curbs on enrichment levels in different countries.

On the other hand, there are also disadvantages. The researchers note the normalization of the issue of enrichment or increasing the desire of countries in the region to enter the nuclear field and acquire knowledge in the field. However, they explain that “the Middle East is already in a kind of nuclear arms race (civilian as far as is known) on a small scale, and creative ideas must be thought of to, at the very least, control the pace of progress. Israel has the option of continuing to strongly oppose any change in the nuclear status quo in the East the high school, including opposing uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia.”

In conclusion, the researchers direct the spotlight to the American Congress: “In any case, it is likely that the expectancy of Israel’s success in influencing the results of the negotiations between Washington and Riyadh on the matter is low. A better option, given that there is already an American willingness to allow uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia, is to try to be a part from the discussions on the subject and influence them so that Israel’s security interests are taken into account, and in addition so that it can negotiate with the United States on a possible ‘compensation’… Israel must try and take advantage of this leverage to improve its conditions and flood additional ideas, such as the ‘regional fuel bank’.”