The ballistic missile and the message: why do Iran and the Houthis attack on Sundays

11.5 minutes – this is the length of time the ballistic missile took on its way from Yemen to Israel, about 2,040 km – this is what the Houthis said in a message that celebrated the launch of the missile into the center of the country on Sunday morning. A short time later the IDF also confirmed that the missile The Houthi disintegrated in the air over Israel, and that Arrow and Iron Dome systems tried to intercept it. The IDF added that the results of the interception are under investigation, as fragments of the missile and the interceptors fell in different areas of the country, causing, among other things, a fire near Lod.

As we know, Israel has multi-layered defense systems. The Arrow 3 system, which is designed to intercept ballistic missiles when they are outside the atmosphere, and the Arrow 2 system, have successfully dealt with similar threats in the past. However, as mentioned, this time the attempts apparently failed – even though a response time of 11 minutes is considered relatively long. While it is not yet clear why the missile was not successfully intercepted, it can be said that it illustrated to the Israeli security system that even its advanced defense systems are not necessarily hermetic.

“11 minutes is a lot of time to intercept a missile,” says Dr. Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies. “When the missile is outside the atmosphere, they try to intercept it with arrow 3. If you miss and the missile enters the atmosphere, you use arrow 2 – and if that too misses Then there is the David sling system. It is possible that the missile had a certain maneuverability, but the Israeli systems also know how to deal with maneuvering missiles,” adds Kaliski.

intercepting a ballistic missile

This is not the first time that the Houthis have launched a ballistic missile at Israel, but it is the first time that the air defense system has such difficulty intercepting it. A ballistic missile is known for its high speed, but its disadvantage is that it has little – if any – maneuverability. Ballistic missiles that are launched from Yemen, for example, leave the atmosphere and reach an altitude of about 300-400 km. These missiles accelerate to a speed of about Mach 5 (for comparison, the speed of sound is Mach 1).

On its way to the target, a ballistic missile goes through several stages. Initially, during the take-off phase, the system is slow and great pressures are applied to it. “The engine is not yet released from the missile, so there are tremendous pressures in the body of the missile, which is still weak,” Kalisky points out. In the next step, which is considered ideal for the interception systems, the missile is found outside the atmosphere. “It is desirable to intercept the missile when it is far from the target, then when it is intercepted, all fragments of the interceptors and the missile fall in the enemy’s territory,” says Kaliski.

In the current case the missile has reached its third stage – which is considered the most difficult for the interception – the stage where it dives to the target. “At this stage, we might miss. There is not much backup, and the fragments, as we have seen, fall on our side – for all the damages caused by this.”

Iranian-made ballistic missiles can carry between 500-750 kg and cause much more serious damage than Hamas’ rockets. Therefore, the security establishment often does not hesitate to intercept the threats, despite the heavy financial investment involved – when the interception of an Arrow 2 is estimated at about 1.5 million dollar, and that of Arrow 3 for about 2 million dollars.

“Iranian-made missiles are multi-stage. Like any missile, there is an engine that at some point disconnected from the body – and the body continues. When the missile descends, the force of gravity is added – and it falls at speeds of Mach 10-15, and then it is much more difficult for the interception systems to deal with it.” Klisky adds.

The spotlight on the USA

A common denominator that can be found between the large Iranian attack on April 14, and the Hezbollah attack that went wrong on August 25 and the Houthi missile that is now being launched – is that each of these attacks took place on a Sunday. According to estimates, this is not a coincidence. “There may be an element of consciousness here,” explains Aviram Blaish, vice president of the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs. “There is a disruption of routine at the beginning of the week, and when you are able to do it at a fixed time that you decide on – it radiates mental strength.”

Is the ballistic missile a step on the way to an imminent all-out war with the Houthis? Dr. Eyal Pinko from the Department of Political Science and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, estimates that the answer to this is negative. Kamala Harris’s chances of being elected, and the Iranians don’t want Trump due to the damage he caused them with the withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the sanctions in 2018. In Iran, they understand very well that it will be very bad for them if Trump is elected, and they prefer Harris to have an advantage over him.”

According to Pinko, the Iranians have no interest in an all-out war, but in exerting pressure on Israel to withdraw the IDF from the Gaza Strip. They see that when civilians are harmed or kidnapped killers, it affects the civilians. Therefore, this is another means of pressure by the Israeli government to agree to the terms of the negotiations. Will the IDF attack them back? It depends on where the sore point is. The red line changes depending on someone’s desire to respond. It is possible that even if both sides are not interested in an all-out war, there will be a miscalculation that will lead to that.”

Blaish also turns the spotlight on the US elections. “All of Iran’s recent moves, including that of reformist President Massoud Pazkhian, have dealt with the American issue. The American election of Trump is one event for Iran, but if they can be with Harris – then why rush for them? If Iran goes nuclear, then we will find ourselves in a different place in total war. Therefore, the Iranians are advocating a strategy of delay in order to create a certain superiority.”