Five definitions from one of the most listened to economists

Marina Dal Poggetto, director of the consulting firm EcoGo and one of the most listened to economists, left a string of definitions. The first: “Luckily Milei did not fulfill the electoral contract,” said.

In this regard, he explained: “For me this started out much better than the campaign proposal seemed. Fortunately, he did not fulfill the electoral contract and went for a much more pragmatic program.”

The economist spoke with Iván Schargrodsky in her interview series “On the record”, which is broadcast on C+ (Cenital’s YouTube channel). There, the director of EcoGo stressed that Javier Milei’s economic plan “It has some design issues, They can be corrected, but have costs”.

Secondly, Dal Poggetto spoke about the cepo and the dollar blend. For the economist, “That starting scheme had some contradictions: The blend, which was invented by Massa (…) The economic explanation is that they want to contain the gap”said.

In her analysis, the economist again highlighted one of the greatest difficulties that, in her opinion, the Milei administration faces and that is that “in the programs you can always order some things”, her reading is that ““with the blend it doesn’t close”. It creates a fairly large dependence on the clamp.”

“The program is starting off well for me.the rush to clean up the Central Bank’s balance sheet and the delay in releasing the blend and the use of crawling It allowed you to lower inflation, but you have no escape route,” he assured.

“Here you are depending on the clamp because Your financial program depends on the cepo, “Your interest rate, which is negative today, is the kick-off for what they see as the recovery of the economy. They are waiting for the interest rate to go down and for that to generate an expansion of credit and consumption,” he said.

“I don’t see any way out of the restrictions this year, it’s not going to happen,” he said. And on this point, he concluded: “If your goal is to lower inflation and your anchor is the exchange rate, he stocks are almost a necessary condition to support the exchange rate anchor.”

The third definition has to do with that “The single tax is a serious medium-term problem” because it defunds the provisional regime. “You need about 20 self-employed workers to pay a minimum pension, you have a cash flow problem,” he warned.

Another of the definitions of the director of EcoGo on the subject of subsidies: “They can’t be eternalhave a fiscal cost,” he added.

And the fifth theme that for Dal Poggetto translates as difficulty is that “Clearly Argentina has a productivity problem”.

In this regard he stated: “To some extent you have to have an improvement in the distribution of income associated with productivity. This growth scheme leaves a lot of people excluded, it creates an increasingly broken society.”

In a walk through different concepts, Dal Poggetto continued: “Cristina [Fernández de Kirchner] He talks about bimonetary economy in the third person, the economy is bimonetary. The exchange rate scheme in convertibility ended in a financial crisis, but the inflation rate in 2003 returned to 3.6% annually.”

“Are we going to grow like a scuba diver? You don’t have dollars. The Central Bank is still bankrupt, your reserves are still negative and now the argument is that there is no need to have reserves,” he said.

And as many economists point out, he stressed that “The Argentine solution is political, not economic technique.” He said that “it is absolutely necessary, but if you don’t start to broaden the horizon, and all you have is tactics and efficiency, it is very difficult.” “Argentina, in collective terms, is a disaster,” he summarized.

“Exporting companies lose money in Argentina, They lost money with the gap and they are losing money now with the exchange rate lag.o. Exports do not play a role,” he said. And finally he hinted that “If convertibility had not failed, history would have been different.”