The economic team is working these days to install the idea that the exit from the stocks can be gradual with releases of restrictions every couple of weeks and not necessarily depending on the influx of fresh funds from abroad.
“There is no single way out of the trap“It can be done gradually as we are doing or as a shock if we receive that money, but it depends on how soon these variables evolve,” the Minister of Economy said on Sunday. Luis Caputo when asked about the negotiations for a Monetary Fund disbursement to help the Government accelerate the exit from the exchange rate.
Caputo stressed that it has not yet been decided whether a new agreement with the IMF will be requested. “First we have to ask for it“We haven’t decided yet what we’re going to do,” Caputo responded to a question in an interview on LN+. “Now we have the ninth and tenth reviews that we can do together or not, and depending on how other variables of the economy evolve, we will ask for a new program or not, with the aim of having new disbursements.”
In addition to the macro variables, which the Government monitors, among which the country risk reduction and the exchange rate gap, the political factor weighs on moving forward with a new agreement with the organization. As this should be endorsed in the National Congress, the Government considers that negotiations with legislators may be more complicated than those that can be maintained with the body it presides over. Kristalina Georgiva.
“It’s a matter of time. Now it’s true that The outlook looks better than two months ago, from the point of view of country risk and the fall of the gap. That’s why we’re not in a hurry. Time is in our favor, as long as we continue to be consistent with what we have been doing,” a source from the economic team told this newspaper.
In addition to a new agreement with the organization, another option that is on the discussion table is get a loan from international banks to increase reserves and make exchange rate release easier and faster.
In the recording of the interview with Caputo on LN+, the Minister had stated: “We are going to go to a REPO scheme with some banks which is a collateralized financing that you can do at a much lower rate than what it would cost you today to refinance the bonds in the market. Since the rate today is very high, we are doing this REPO financing so that the rate is lower. It serves us to guarantee the capital payment for January.” However, that moment was never finally aired.
On Monday, when consulted by the press, the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno, confirmed that “The REPO is something that the Central Bank is analyzing.” Sources with access to these negotiations recognized that the Government talk to “two or three banks” international funds to establish a loan that will allow debt maturities at the beginning of the year to be avoided. “The Central Bank is the one who negotiates. The collateral can be gold and other assets. Everything is on the table for discussion. We are waiting for the offer to adapt to the needs of the country in terms of term and rates,” said this person.
A REPO is a short-term debt agreement in which the debtor deposits collateral on behalf of creditors, generally composed of debt securities. As published Clarion in the City there is talk of a loan of around US$3 billion which could be backed by gold reserves or bopreal securities, the dollar bonds that companies and importers used to pay off debt with suppliers and the one-time payment of dividends in April.
If the fall in the country’s risk extends, which this Monday was on the verge of 1,200 points. Argentina could get better conditions in these negotiations. Although both the Government and the banks insist that “there is no rush” to close the agreement, this new REPO could be closed this month, according to sources consulted by this newspaper.