The withdrawal of deposits accelerated in October, but in the City they are optimistic about the result

The second month of the first stage of money laundering started with less force regarding the furor that had been seen in the last days of September. Banks warn that in the first days of October the trend at the end of the month was reversed and more dollars left than entered savings accounts. However, in the City they are optimistics: they talk about the record that laundering presents in the growth of banks’ foreign currency deposits, they compare it with the income of dollars during Mauricio Macri’s laundering and they are enthusiastic about the impact that this new “cushion” of banknotes can have in the capital market.

According to data from the Central Bank, after the peak of September 30, when The stock of deposits in dollars had reached the maximum in more than five years of US$ 31,519 million, Until last Thursday there were falls and the drop reached 3% of the total that had accumulated due to fiscal honesty since the second half of August. In total, In the first three days of the month, US$ 417 million went away and the stock reached US$ 31,102 million.

With these withdrawalsthe accumulated since mid-August, when the first stage of fiscal honesty began, reaches US$12,433 million.

The only data available regarding how many of those dollars were credited to a CERA account, the special accounts for laundering in banks, was provided by the Central Bank in its last Monthly Monetary Report: “The balance of the “Special Asset Regularization Account” (CERA) stood at USD 11.9 billion at the end of the month. Thus, “The balance reached in money laundering in 2016 (USD7.7 billion) has already been exceeded,” The organization highlighted and clarified that it was “the success” of the measure that motivated the Government to decide to extend the deadline until the end of this month to enter the first stage of this regime.

This allows you to deposit up to US$ 100,000 in the entities without making further clarifications and without paying any penalty. People who took dollars to banks during September could withdraw them again from the first of this month. In a first-line entity, They recognized that so far in October, more than 20% of the balances that had been credited to the CERA accounts were gone. Although the number seems relevant, they explained that this behavior “was what we anticipated”: That would be a lot in other circumstances, but marginal if we take into account that almost US$ 3,000 million came in from money laundering,” they commented strictly off the record.

At another competing bank they reported that, until Thursday, the outflow of dollars in cash was not very relevant “We consider that the first days should be the ones with the greatest retreat“, they said and added: “It is worth mentioning that new funds also continue to be received, so the negative flow is less than the aforementioned amount.”

This situation is not what is reflected in another foreign capital entity where they said that since last Tuesday “Almost 15% of what came in due to money laundering left. There are still deposits, but withdrawals are greater.” The situation is not the same in all banks: in another entity they told Clarín that they increased the number of new CERA accounts and the funding in them since October began.

The laundering imposed by the AFIP allows not only to withdraw the money at no cost but also to invest it in the capital market without any penalty. Banks and brokerage houses share optimism that a good part of the money laundered will end up in investments.

“With the information from the first days of October we are observing a drop in deposits in foreign currency at a lower rate than the previous increase. Although it is impossible to talk about proportions with such a small sample, it would seem that what was observed in CERA accounts shows that A no small part of the outflows is destined for ALYC accounts or traditional deposits. As an additional sign of this stability described, the stocks invested so far in mutual funds look stable,” commented a leading bank.

On Monday, at the inauguration of World Investor Week, Patricia Boedo, vice president of the CNV, had said: “We do not yet have precise information regarding the number of CERA accounts opened in ALYCS and the funds that have migrated from the accounts. to the investors’ principals, but we know that the percentage jumps high.