The voters of Arab origin are against Trump, but it is not certain that they will support Harris

Whenever we say that “one month remains” until the electionsU.Swe are not accurate. The elections have already started, mainly through the mail, also through special polling stations. In some countries the number of voters so far is greater than the margin of victory of the candidates in 2020 and 2016. This means that a growing number of voters will not be affected by events that occur this week, or in any of the next four weeks. This necessarily includes the Middle East.

Sympathies and resentments for foreign countries do not tend to influence most voters, unless the conflicts in which they are involved are likely to start a big fire, or cost a lot of money.

A research center at the highly prestigious Brown University in the northeastern United States puts the cost of military aid that the United States has transferred to Israel since the beginning of the war at $17.9 billion. This center specializes in the costs of wars. His report was published on Monday, the anniversary of October 7. An account from other sources shows that during this period the US spent an additional 4.86 billion dollars to finance its increased military operations.

According to these researchers, the total US military aid to Israel in the last 65 years amounted to $251.2 billion, far greater than what the US has extended to any country.

According to Brown, the number of American soldiers in the Middle East reached a peak of 50,000 last year. On the eve of Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, it decreased somewhat, to 43 thousand, but was still much larger than the number that preceded October 7, 34 thousand. The danger of a flare-up threatens to increase this number, and possibly also entangle the US in military operations.

Such a possibility may well influence the voters, and opinion suggests that it will be good for Donald Trump. He is seen as the least eager candidate to intervene overseas. He is a longtime opponent of the “perpetual wars” from the home of the creator of a bipartisan consensus, which once included the Republican Party. Trump has done his best to undermine that consensus.

Matters in the heart and in the pocket

Demographic segments dedicated to one international cause, such as support for a foreign country (pro-Israeli, pro-Arab, pro-Greek, etc.) are necessarily very limited. Their influence reaches its peak in countries where the margins of victory are going to be tiny.

Michigan, in the North Midwest of the USA, is the most prominent. It has the largest concentration of voters of Middle Eastern or North African origin. Their number is estimated at 300,000 or more. The margin of victory of Joe Biden In Michigan four years ago it was about 155 thousand votes. Donald Trump’s margin of victory eight years ago was less than 11 thousand votes. One small town can tip the scales.

The “New York Times” interviewed more than 20 voters of Arab origin last weekend in Michigan. Only two of them said they were going to vote in favor Kamala Harris. They are divided between Trump and junior candidates. There always are in the US. Substantial voting in favor of junior leftist candidates ensured the defeat of the Democratic presidential candidates in 2000 and 2016. History may well repeat itself.

Interestingly, on Tuesday, a prominent group of Arab American activists softened their criticism of Biden and Harris. One of the founders of this group, Lexi Zeidan, said in a video, “It is clear that Netanyahu will do his best to ensure the election of Trump. We must do our best to stop him.”

Reason suggests that the competition in Michigan will indeed be decided on matters of “bread and butter”, but in this unusual year the opposite is also possible. In previous election cycles, we have seen from time to time emotional preferences tipping the scales, sometimes even against material self-interest.

Harris and “the Israeli people”

The frequency of Harris’s visits to Michigan has increased, and in recent days she has begun handing out interviews to anyone nearby, to dispel the impression that she has no opinions and no ideas.

On Sunday she was interviewed by “Sixty Minutes”, the most watched news program on American television. Although she has fallen from her past greatness, she still enjoys the weekly attention of nine million viewers. Excerpts from it are common all over social media.

What Harris said about the Middle East will not improve her standing among Michigan Arabs. Apart from general comments about the need for a ceasefire, one comment stood out to her. When asked if Benjamin Netanyahu is a “true and close ally”, she answered without hesitation: “I think, with all due respect, that a better question is whether there is an important alliance between the American people and the Israeli people. And the answer to that is yes.”

The separation between the “Israeli people” and its leaders is of course not the first time, but this is probably one of the first times it emerges from the mouth of a presidential candidate.

“Biden curses like salt”

The revelations about the quality of the relationship between Biden and Netanyahu in Bob Woodward’s new book are of course not revelations at all. The usual vulgarity of translations from English in the Israeli media gives a sensational touch to trivial matters. Over the course of his long life, Biden has used so many vulgar expressions towards so many people. “Biden curses like a sailor on a ship,” a CNN commentator wrote yesterday. More than once his rude behavior was recorded in video and audio films.

But even if the quotes from Woodward were greatly exaggerated, it is clear that for 30 years Americans in positions of power, Republicans andDemocratsseething with distrust and also resentmentBenjamin Netanyahu. It started in 1992, when he was banned from entering the State Department building; This continued in his first conversation with the president Bill Clintonin 1996, when he tried to teach all his interlocutors, from the president on down, who the Arabs really are; And it reached the heights of enmity and coldness with Barack Obama And with Joe Biden. In any case, the separation between the Prime Minister and the “Israeli people” expresses a clear and tangible reality.

Here are a few words about the state of the polls: In general, they continue to show how close the race is. They flow in droves, ten a day. In most cases, their quality is suspect. But yesterday one of the most respected polls, that of the New York Times and Siena College, showed a slight increase for Harris. Her advantage increased from 2% to 3%. Really not much, within the limits of the sampling error (2.4%). But the previous survey showed the opposite. Decision Desk HQ’s probability model gives Harris a 53% to 47% chance of victory. It counts against “don’t know.”

This is exactly the proper description: you never know. There is a moment in almost every election campaign, when one of the candidates begins to gain irreversible momentum. Its expression is not necessarily reflected in the advantage difference, but in its solidity. We saw it in the last days of several election campaigns in the last 50 years. We are not there yet, but we will wait impatiently.