Israel’s secret services failed on October 7th: why was that?

Israel felt safe. Although there were enough indications of an impending attack on the eve of the Hamas massacre, it was not prevented. For Israel’s legendary intelligence agencies – Mossad, Shin Bet and Aman – October 7th will forever remain an embarrassment.

A year later, however, the intelligence services appear to be back in top form. The exploding pagers and walkie-talkies on hundreds of Hezbollah members seemed straight out of a “James Bond” film. The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and large parts of the leadership of the Shiite militia a few days later cemented the triumph. Why is it that the Israeli intelligence services failed so much – and then triumphed so much?

The reasons for the failure on October 7th

Hamas had already rehearsed the October 7 attacks and massacre months before. She shared videos of these exercises on social networks. In addition, so-called scouts in the military bases near the Gaza Strip had warned of suspicious Hamas activities weeks before the attack. They weren’t listened to. However, that was only one of the reasons that led to the intelligence disaster.

The reasons for the successes in the war against Hezbollah

 

While the Israeli intelligence services failed before October 7th, today they are showing their skills on the northern border. In just a few weeks, the Israeli army decimated Hezbollah’s command structure and continues to inflict heavy blows on the Lebanese Shiite militia. There are two main reasons for this.

What reforms have there been in Israel since then?

It is not yet clear what lessons Israel has learned from the failure of its security services on October 7th. The security services have announced their own internal investigations. “But they’re not really hard,” says Yossi Melman. “These examinations are often carried out by friends and colleagues of those who are to be examined.”

What Israel now needs is a state commission of inquiry, like after the Yom Kippur War in 1973, in which Israel was also surprised by its enemies, says Melman. “But Netanyahu is resisting it.” Because then his own failure would also come to light, says the journalist.

In September, the head of Israel Defense Forces Unit 8200, Yossi Sariel, announced his resignation. This military unit takes care of military reconnaissance and was probably largely responsible for the catastrophe of October 7th. To date, there have been no further resignations of prominent leading figures from the security apparatus. “Most of the people who were responsible for the failure are still in their positions,” says Michael Mihlshtein.

The resignations are important, says the former intelligence officer. “Only when the most important people in charge are gone can the intelligence services tackle deep, structural reforms,” says Mihlshtein. “Unfortunately, there are no signs that they will be leaving any time soon.”