Qatar, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia want to control Gaza. And they have an interest

The leader of Hamas in Gaza and the head of the Political Bureau, Yahya Sinwar, is considered the central figure who prevented progress on the deal for the release of hostages and a cease-fire in the Strip, until he was killed last week in an accidental operation. Along with the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah before KahudQ. The issue of the day after has been revived – first in Gaza, and then in the entire Middle East.

According to United Nations estimates, just clearing the rubble from the Gaza Strip may take 15 years, and experts who spoke with the Bloomberg news agency in August estimated the costs of reconstruction at more than 80 billion dollars. The result is that significant players are required to put their hands deep into their pockets for the reconstruction, and even agree to send military forces – either in favor of the Philadelphia axis and the Rafah crossing or in favor of monitoring the Gaza-Israel border.

When looking at the countries of the region, there are three major players who have taken part or may be involved in the future protracted mission: Qatar, which for about fiveUntil the war, 30 million dollars in cash flowed into the Gaza Strip every month; The United Arab Emirates, which was the first Arab country to support Rish Gali with a multinational force in Gaza after the war; And Saudi Arabia, which has actually been in talks with Israel in recent years. Globes examines the considerations of the three main Persian players, who understand that in order to hold the reins in the region and place a significant counter force against the Ayatollah state, they have to go through the ruins of Gaza.

Qatar: Plays on all courts

There is no farce actress with more experience in involvement in the Gaza Strip than Qatar. As mentioned, since 2018 it has flowed into Gaza a monthly grant of 30 million dollars, which has three components: 100 dollars for 100 thousand needy families; $10 million to purchase fuel from Egypt; and 10 million dollars for diesel fuel for the power plant in Gaza. Already in real time the Israeli approval of the move was criticized, and following the war of iron swords and the underground system developed by Hamas – it is understandable where the bulk of the funding flowed.

Even before that, Qatar poured capital into the Hamas regime in Gaza. According to a source who spoke with the VOA network, between the years 2012-2021, Doha transferred aid that includes food, medicine and electricity, in coordination with Israel and the USA, for a total of 1.49 billion dollars.

Qatar is also the main renegade country that willingly hosts senior Hamas officials. The most senior of them was the head of the Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, until he was killed in Tehran. At the same time, other senior officials live there, including the head of the Shura Council, Muhammad Darvish. This patronage brings Qatar to the position of one of the main mediators with Hamas, although since the October 7 attack, those mediation actions have not brought many results.

As usual, Qatar’s foreign policy involves “playing all fields”. When it was convenient for her to show openness to the West during the World Cup, she allowed Israel to operate a consular representation in Doha. While it hosts American forces at the “Al-Odeid” air force base, it also operates its “Al-Jazeera” propaganda arm. The echo of the anti-Israeli messages on the Qatar channel led the Knesset in early April to enact the law that enables the closure of its activities in Israel.

Emir Tamim al-Thani and his people benefit from the situation in which everyone connects with them: Hamas by virtue of their residence in Doha, while the US due to its military presence in the country and the need for Qatar as a mediator. The Qataris take advantage of such a position not only in the Palestinian arena, but even in Afghanistan – as part of the contacts between the Western countries and the Taliban regime.

In the case of Hamas, it is evident that there are senior officials who support the terrorist organization. The mother of Emir Tamim, Moza bint Nasser, for example, issued a statement of mourning for the death of the architect of the October 7 attack. “The meaning of the name Yahya is one who lives,” she wrote. “They thought he was dead, but he is alive. Like his name, he will live and they will disappear.”

Ariel Admoni, a doctoral student studying Qatar at Bar Ilan University, explains that its foreign policy is not to put all its eggs in one basket. “Qatar prefers that Hamas continue to control the Gaza Strip the day after, but are prepared for different scenarios in order to ensure that the foothold is allowed. However, in a situation where the Palestinian Authority controls the Strip, Qatar is expected to be only one influencer among many, unlike Hamas with whom the relationship was intense.”

United Arab Emirates: A way to get closer to the US

A country that is advancing to the status of a significant player in the Gaza Strip is the United Arab Emirates. A significant part of the activity on the subject is carried out behind the scenes, but the Emirati vision has already been published. The Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for Political Affairs, Lana Nusayeva, wrote in an article for the “Financial Times” in July that Abu Dhabi supports the establishment of a multinational force in the Strip. This, as part of an “intermediate stage” for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Last month, the Foreign Minister himself, Abdullah bin Zayed, tweeted on X that the Emirates would agree to integrate the day after, only subject to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Bottom line, it is clear that the statements do not rule out involvement in the Strip.

For more than a decade, the United Arab Emirates has exerted its influence in various arenas. The emirates were deeply involved in the civil war in Yemen against the Houthis, and today they avoid helping the Americans against them as a kind of “closing the circle”. At the same time, an arena where the Emirati military influence is particularly evident is Africa. Within this framework, military aid is given to various countries such as Ethiopia, Mali and Morocco. In addition, the Sudanese army recently published a document of an IML captured by the “rapid reaction” forces, which was claimed to have come from the United Arab Emirates.

In the Gaza arena, the United Arab Emirates is already involved, for now mainly in the humanitarian field. Data from the Coordinator of Government Operations in the Territories shows that of the humanitarian aid drops from the air, 57.2% were Emirati. Despite this, the Palestinian street is not particularly sympathetic to the Emirates. A survey by the Shakaki Institute from September found that only 19% of Palestinians express satisfaction with the performance of the United Arab Emirates in the war. Only one country received a lower rate (Saudi Arabia, 15%), for the purpose of comparison 43% are satisfied with Qatar’s performance, 44% with Hezbollah and 69% with Yemen “thanks” to the Houthis.

“Sentiment towards the Emirates is low because of the Abraham Accords. The leadership and the Palestinian people saw this as treason,” explains Dr. Yoel Guzhansky, head of the regional arena at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv University. “It is important for the Emirates to show that they support the Palestinian issue, But they don’t go out of their way. They are the most involved player in Gaza: from desalination of water, to several field hospitals, to flying critically ill patients to the United Arab Emirates in coordination with Israel, which prefers them over Qatar.”

The unimpressive results of the emirates in the polls were accepted even though the emirates also operate in the diplomatic arena. The Minister of State for International Cooperation, Rim Al-Hashmi, announced about two months ago that her country would consider deploying an international force in the Gaza Strip, subject to the invitation of the Palestinian government. When in Abu Dhabi they talk about a Palestinian government, they mean Abu Mazen and not Hamas.

In the meantime, Dr. Gozhansky says that the apparent hardening of attitudes stems from the anti-Israeli sentiment in the Gulf following the rumors flowing from Gaza. “The Emirates and the Saudis must play the game, if they want public legitimacy. The United Arab Emirates is interested in using its capabilities and resources in the Gaza Strip to gain ground at the expense of Qatar – and to be close to the US. Furthermore, Hamas is the Muslim Brotherhood, political Islam, so the Emirates will be happy to see them destroyed. I’m sure that when they heard about the elimination of Sinwar, they were extremely happy “.

Alongside this, in July it was reported on the “Middle East Eye” website, which is affiliated with Qatar, that the United Arab Emirates is working with Israel and the United States to establish a national committee that will manage the Gaza Strip at the end of the war, headed by senior Fatah exile Mohammad Dahlan, who lives in Abu Dhabi. Dahlan, whose fortune is estimated at more than 120 million dollars and is considered close to the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed, was asked about the issue several times in recent months and denied it. However, the various directions that linked him to involvement in the management of Gaza the day after, raise doubts.

Prof. Uzi Rabi, a senior researcher at the Dayan Center, Tel Aviv University, says that in the Gulf countries they are not only under the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip, but also under the regime of Abu Mazen in Ramallah. “As for the post-Gaza agenda, if and when, the Saudi rule is ‘neither Hamas nor Abbas’. In other words, ‘neither Hamas nor Abu Mazen’. In this sense, a person like Dahlan, Fatahoui and Gazati, could unfortunately be a possible solution for the intermediate stage.”

Saudi Arabia: The concern is from Iran

The last, the biggest, the most powerful player, and the one that with one decision can cause an international explosion, is Saudi Arabia. It was only in September of last year that US President Joe Biden presented the IMEC corridor plan, which was intended for a connection from the port of Piraeus, through Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – all the way to India. The winds of normalization between Israel and the leader of the Sunni world, Saudi Arabia, were at their peak, until that the October 7 attack shook the Middle East.

More than a year has passed, but at no point were Saudi positions heard because the scroll was closed on the contacts. The main issue was and remains the Saudi demand for Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state, knowing that normalization will lead to a wave of establishing full relations with Israel, which will be much more powerful than the Abraham Accords. “I don’t care about the Palestinians,” said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during their meeting, according to a report in the “Atlantic” from September.

However, Mohammed bin Salman is required to listen to the pro-Palestinian sentiment much more than Mohammed bin Zayed, due to the fact that Saudi Arabia is the guardian of the holy places. A survey conducted by the Washington Institute among Saudi respondents and published in December found that 96% support the proposal that “Arab countries should immediately sever all diplomatic, political or other ties with Israel, in protest against the military activity in Gaza.”

The crown prince is looking at long-term goals that he can achieve through normalization with Israel. As part of the talks involving American involvement, the Saudis demand approval for a civilian nuclear program, F-35 aircraft and a defense alliance. The Saudi concern is not directed at Israel, but at Iran. For the past three and a half years, Israel has been operating under the command of CENTCOM, the American Central Command. As part of regional meetings, there is an agreement that the biggest regional threat lies in the Ayatollah regime.

Prof. Rabi explains that the Palestinians are not at the top of Bin Salman’s mind, to say the least. “What interests him is how the kingdom is protected when Iran goes on a rampage. In the eyes of the Saudis, Hamas and Hezbollah are a combination of the two stumbling blocks in the Middle East: extreme Shia from the Iranian Beit Midrash (Hezbollah) and Hutter of the Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas). It is not for nothing that they clipped the wings of the Brotherhood movement the Muslims’ in the Kingdom”.

“And what do we do with Iran?” adds Prof. Rabi, “We talk about the day after the war, but Israel is required to take care of its own security. The solution does not lie in Israel and Saudi Arabia, but in the United States or a significant European power. Forces should have teeth, while the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates will put a hand in their pocket to support.”

Saudi Arabia itself suffered an Iranian attack on the facilities of the national oil company “Aramco” in September 2019, and it understands Tehran’s motives. Precisely because of this, the potential for its involvement in Gaza is enormous. Riyadh is working to diversify the economy, but the world is still dependent on oil. Saudi Arabia currently produces about 9 million barrels a day – significantly lower than its production capacity – in order to keep the price of oil as high as possible. For comparison, the United Arab Emirates produces only about 4 million barrels, because that is its capacity. Therefore, it is possible to understand the economic potential of normalization with Israel, or Saudi involvement in the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip even without normalization.

“The Saudis are not suckers, not ones that should be built on to fill Gaza with soldiers,” Prof. Rabi concludes. “They will be happy to lend a hand from the outside through aid and initiatives in areas such as gas and water. Saudi Arabia will not enter as long as Hamas is alive and kicking in Gaza, and therefore there is no other choice but to establish a temporary military government in the Strip that will empty Hamas of its civilian capabilities, and break the fear barrier of the residents. From there , it will be possible to build the day after. Only after the body of Hamas is laid on the floor of the Middle East, they will see the Saudis.”