Scenario for the Ukraine war and Europe’s role

Donald Trump has a comprehensive agenda. Foreign policy is just one point among many. And it’s not China or the Middle East that’s at the top, but Europe: the war in Ukraine.

The ex-president, who apparently has a good chance of being re-elected on November 5th, essentially makes two points. On the one hand, that Russia only attacked Ukraine because Biden is a weak president whom Moscow does not respect. On the other hand, he himself could end the war “within 24 hours” by negotiating an agreement between the two warring parties.

He doesn’t say exactly what such an agreement might look like, but it is widely believed that it would pressure Ukraine to give up territory in the east currently occupied by Russia – land for peace.

Trump is an anti-war president. His team agreed to an agreement with the Taliban in Doha in February 2020 to end America’s long military involvement in Afghanistan – something Obama already wanted but failed to achieve.

Biden has essentially adopted Trump’s plans to withdraw from Afghanistan, although it was foreseeable that the US-backed government would then fall and the Taliban would take over.

Economic logic

For Trump, the businessman and entertainer, the logic according to which the international order works is not primarily military, but economic.

In Trump’s view, the world is organized by states that are either powerful and have strong leaders or are weak. The weak have to submit, pay tribute to the strong, and the strong just do what they please. States organize their interests using agreements, similar to how companies do.

Biden is a weak leader for Trump, but Putin, Xi or the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are strong for him and therefore interesting partners for agreements in which economic and political advantages are negotiated, areas of control are delimited and conflicts are avoided.

In September, Trump said in the TV debate with Kamala Harris that if elected, he would end the war in Ukraine before he was president. He will then “talk to one and the other” and bring them together. He knows Zelensky and Putin well and has a good relationship with both of them. They respected him: Trump – but not Biden.

In the first step to Ankara

If Trump wins, he could quickly implement these ideas. The following scenario would be conceivable: Trump calls Putin and Zelensky and invites them to a “peace conference” in Turkey.

Putin is coming to Ankara because he is counting on having his demands essentially met: a free hand for the further de facto integration of the occupied Ukrainian territories and conditions for Ukraine, which he would like to weaken permanently and make it impossible to join NATO.

Zelenskiy is coming because he has no choice: the continuation of the war, the future security of his country as well as the economic means for reconstruction, everything depends on Washington. While the Europeans contribute significantly to supporting Ukraine, they have been all too willing to cede leadership on Ukraine and Russia to the United States.

What happens next in this scenario?

In fact, an agreement is quickly signed: a ceasefire plus a “security agreement” that only with difficulty conceals the fact that Ukraine will not be given access to NATO and that it will not receive any comparable, tangible security guarantees from the West, such as the promise of rearmament and the like Presence of Western troops in rump Ukraine.

Zelenskiy signed because Trump gave him a choice: either stop all aid or sign the document.

In the second step to France

Trump then flies on to Paris. In advance, he asked the French president, who is trying to rebuild relations with Trump, to invite the British prime minister and the German chancellor for a briefing.

After his arrival, Trump declared that he had now brought “peace” to Ukraine. Now it is up to the Europeans to provide the lion’s share of support for Ukraine, after all it is about Europe’s security. America has fulfilled its task.

At the same time, Trump is clearly urging the German Chancellor to increase the German defense budget to three percent of gross domestic product, which he rejects. In the conversation, Trump also indicated that he might want to exempt the Europeans from massive new tariffs if they do business on other things.

After a conversation that lasted only a few hours, in which the Europeans hardly got a word in edgewise, the American president left Paris. At home, he is celebrated as a peacemaker by Republicans in Congress.

The result of the mission: The West’s strategy, which has been pursued for almost three years and was designed by Biden’s team in the White House, is in ruins. Ukraine has not been placed in a position of strength as was intended.

In this scenario, Ukraine’s prospects are bleak. The level of security that would be necessary to bring refugee Ukrainians back to their country and attract investment does not exist. In Ukraine, a massive dispute breaks out between the Zelensky camp and its critics, the country is divided, and new elections are scheduled. Russia is making Ukraine the target of a massive hybrid campaign.

Only in the third step can Europe react

The Europeans are duped because Trump did not include them in negotiations on an issue that concerns the future of the European security order. Poles, Balts and Scandinavians are shocked. But they are trying to put a good face on the bad side – and to pursue their security interests even in this greatly changed geopolitical climate.

After an initial moment of frustration, there is an increasing number of voices in this scenario that want to see an opportunity in the crisis. At least, it is also said from Warsaw, the war is over. And at least there is now a chance to put the rump Ukraine on a solid footing.

Poland is committed to sending its own troops to Ukraine together with a coalition of the willing in order to secure the new, extremely fragile situation in the country. Macron is open to the idea, as are the British.

The German Chancellor, on the other hand, leads the camp of skeptics: Such a plan is a dangerous provocation that could endanger the fragile new peace. Now the main thing is to make Russia an offer to get it out of its isolation. Moscow must be rewarded for ending the war and work towards improving the mood.

The Polish initiative does not find a solid majority, and southern Europeans are also skeptical. Instead, they agreed to help Ukraine with more arms supplies and loans.

For its part, Russia is currently adhering to the ceasefire agreements. In Moscow they first want to wait and see whether the rump Ukraine doesn’t collapse on its own and thus fall into Russia’s lap. At the same time, massive investments in the Russian armed forces are continuing and preparations are being made for the next military campaign.

Such a scenario would present Europeans with immense challenges. They don’t even have a seat at the table when it comes to their core security interests. They can only hope that Trump doesn’t get elected, or that if elected, he takes a different path.