Experts expect growth to return soon despite the decline in sales

If Switzerland wants to meet its climate goals, there is a lot to do in one sector in particular: mobility. Around 40 percent of the greenhouse gases we emit are caused there.

But changing course is difficult. In the transport sector, emissions have so far only fallen by 8 percent compared to 1990. Things look completely different with the buildings. There, Switzerland achieved a minus of 40 percent. One reason for this is that less heating is needed in Switzerland due to global warming. But we are also insulating our houses better and are increasingly relying on environmentally friendly heating systems, especially heat pumps.

In order to reduce emissions in transport more quickly, petrol and diesel vehicles must be replaced by climate-friendly alternatives. When it comes to passenger cars, these are primarily electric cars.

Mobility “will be battery-electric”

But after a long period of growth in Switzerland, battery cars have lost market share in recent months. Does this put Switzerland’s climate protection goals at risk? A new report from the consulting firm EBP paints a surprisingly positive picture of future developments given the many recent negative headlines. The mobility of the future will be “battery-electric powered,” it says.

In the worst case, EBP assumes that the market share of electric cars will be 80 percent in 2040 and the share of kilometers driven in 2050 will be slightly less than 80 percent. However, if the screws in European politics are tightened as planned, the market share of electric vehicles will reach almost 100 percent as early as 2040. By 2050, there will be virtually no more fossil fuel cars on the roads.

There are several reasons for EBP’s optimism. One of them: “The electric car is simply better technology than the combustion engine,” says EBP expert Peter de Haan. It is more efficient, quieter – and even cheaper over its lifetime.

It costs less to operate

EBP recently demonstrated this in a separate study. For example, if you compare mid-range cars with each other – such as a Skoda Octavia and an electric VW ID.3 – there is already a cost advantage of over 10,000 francs over an ownership period of eight years. From EBP’s perspective, the price advantage of electric cars will increase even further, among other things because the costs of batteries will continue to fall.

However, this development does not mean that electric cars will eventually be cheaper at dealers than gasoline or diesel cars. “When it comes to climate-friendly technologies, we have to get used to the fact that they are more expensive to buy than competing fossil products,” explains de Haan.

This applies not only to cars, but also to heat pumps and LEDs. What is crucial about all of these technologies is that they cost significantly less to operate. However, the higher purchase price makes it necessary to budget expenses differently, as the initial investment is higher – and that is not particularly popular with either private individuals or companies, says de Haan.

The experts at EBP give other reasons why sales of electric cars will pick up again. In 2025 the EU will once again reduce its CO₂-Sharpen goals. This is forcing the European automotive industry and Swiss importers to sell more electric or hybrid cars next year to avoid penalties. It has always been clear that car manufacturers would definitely not achieve these goals earlier than required, says de Haan. In this sense, the stagnation towards the end of 2024 was “always predictable,” says de Haan.

History repeats itself

The consulting firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance shares this assessment. According to expert Colin McKerracher, a similar situation was observed shortly before the introduction of stricter EU emissions standards in 2020. Sales of electric cars also fell in 2019. When the new rules came into force the following year, business picked up again.

Today, according to McKerracher, the situation is comparable. European car manufacturers have managed to more or less meet the current emissions targets. They currently have little incentive to sell more electric cars. According to McKerracher, this is also reflected in the fact that many car manufacturers will not bring their new, particularly affordable models onto the market until 2025.

However, not all market observers agree. From their point of view, there are other factors that are holding consumers back. The sales prices of electric cars are simply too high compared to the fossil fuel competition. In addition, the range is not sufficient and there is a lack of the necessary charging infrastructure.

The EBP expert de Haan says that it is socially psychologically understandable that such arguments are used to “justify one’s own inaction”. Or, to put it simply, that people look for excuses so that they don’t have to change anything.

But according to de Haan, there is now a wide range of electric vehicles that are not only cheaper overall, but also have “objectively sufficient range”. Most of the purely electric passenger cars put into circulation today would be able to travel more than 400 kilometers.

Further progress expected

The ranges of new electric cars are also continuing to increase, although not as quickly as in the early days of the technology. However, De Haan expects further, steady progress, which “will probably last another 15 to 25 years”. In addition, the batteries can be recharged more and more quickly, which in turn reduces the number of breaks at the electric fuel pumps.

The bosses of European car manufacturers are now lobbying for the strict climate targets to be relaxed again. “But even if they are successful, it will not change the fact that electromobility is the future,” says Peter de Haan. The decisive factor here is the EU regulation that from 2035 new passenger and delivery vehicles do not emit any CO₂ should emit more. This makes it clear that from this point on “petrol and diesel cars will simply no longer be allowed to be sold”.

However, de Haan sees no chance for the hydrogen car. And the hybrid car, which is currently experiencing a boom in markets like China, is only a transitional phenomenon for him. This type of car has both a battery and a tank on board. It will play a role for the period 2025 to 2034. According to de Haan, buying a hybrid car is worthwhile for customers who do not yet want to completely switch to electric mobility.

In the long term, however, the technology makes no sense. The reason: “Hybrid cars are technically very complex,” explains de Haan. The result: They are more expensive to maintain than conventional cars or electric cars, as the cost study carried out by EBP also shows. “These disadvantages will continue to exist in the future,” says de Haan. That’s why hybrid cars would disappear again in the long term.