Those who want to understand the Iranian dilemma should look to Washington

In the introductory class for learning to write ambiguous messages in communication schools, they should document the Iranian conduct since Israel’s extensive Israeli attack.

The Ayatollah regime, with all its affiliates and media arms, says a lot but says nothing about its decisions on whether to respond to the Israeli response. Therefore, the bottom line is that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his men leave themselves a ladder to descend from in order to stop the sequence of blows, and simply put him in the “warehouse”.

They leave it in the warehouse and do not throw it in the trash, because their faces are set on November 5: the US presidential election between former President Donald Trump, who is confident of leaving the nuclear agreement in 2018 and the elimination of Qassem Soleimani two years later, against Vice President Kamala Harris.

Returning Iran to a renewed nuclear agreement

The Biden administration is expected to be recorded in the pages of history as friendly to Israel and one that stood by it when it needed a true friend. However, Harris has signed a series of recent events that testify to her personal position, such as, for example, a speech in which she agreed that Israel is committing “genocide” in Gaza.

One of the main goals of the Biden administration, including Harris, was to return Iran to a renewed nuclear agreement, a task that ended in abject failure. According to an IAEA report from about two months ago that was revealed to Reuters, Iran has reached 60% enriched uranium with a total volume of 164.7 kg.

The organization estimates that Tehran lacks only 2 kg to reach a theoretical amount that, if enriched more, would be enough for four nuclear bombs. Harris, if elected, is expected to continue the policy of trying to bring Iran closer to a renewed agreement, since the 2015 JCPOA is not relevant – both at the level The timetables and the status of the Iranian nuclear program.

Trump: scandal or festival

Trump, on the other hand, is an enigma. Although in his first term he presented a very aggressive policy towards Tehran, but in his second term he is expected to turn to a long-term legacy. In the first term, he led the Abraham Accords that broke the prevailing concept of peace in exchange for territories or normalization in exchange for significant benefits to the Palestinians.

In the second, the entire conduct regarding the Ayatollah regime in general and the nuclear agreement in particular is likely to be a scandal or a festival in Trump’s case: renewal of summaries on halting the progress of the Iranian nuclear program or actual threats to the point of attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities.

Unlike Israel, the US has real capabilities to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities – including the most fortified ones. The Biden administration already sent Tehran a signal on the matter last week, when it chose to attack the Houthi rebels using the B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, which cost $2 billion per unit .

The message contained in an attack signal is that the US does not hesitate when necessary to use the stealth bombers in the Middle East, which can also drop bunker-penetrating weapons, which Israel does not have the ability to use. Trump may still take this a step further, although this, as mentioned, is questionable when dealing with the character this one

Recently, while waiting for the Israeli response, the former president reversed the trend in the polls – and now they range between equality and his slight advantage. As reflected by his victory over Hillary Clinton in which he overcame her despite receiving fewer votes simply because there is the electoral system, the decision in Washington may go in November right to the last electors. Any swing state could determine the fate of the United States for four years.

Some will treat the Middle East issue as less critical than others in the US elections, but there is no doubt that it is both important and very important. Therefore, in Iran, they are interested in the results of the fight between Trump and Harris. They internalize that a rash reaction will damage the chances of Harris’s election, which they prefer, and make it difficult On progress in negotiations for ceasefire and hostage deals with Hamas and Hezbollah. Such a deal would be very beneficial to Harris if it happens in the near future.

In the meantime, from November 6 until the new president or the new president enters the Oval Office, a twilight period will begin that is very dangerous for the Middle East in such a fragile period. It is difficult to predict how Biden will behave when he is no longer concerned with his electoral fate, and it is also difficult to predict how Iran will react to a potential election of Trump. Bottom line, after suffering a difficult blow to their air defense system and ballistic missiles, the Islamic Republic is not expected to attack Israel with the same intensity as the October 1st attack – until the US elections.