The blue dollar, bonds and the Merval fall and the country risk rises

The rally in Argentine bonds was cut short this Wednesday, with declines in titles that average 1% and that caused the country’s risk to rise again.

The JP Morgan indicator that measures the excess cost of debt is located at 955 basis points after having touched 966, the second consecutive rise after having reached 895 points at the start of Tuesday. Despite the rebound, it is still at the lowest level since August 2019, which encourages exchange rate calm.

For analysts, the bond pause was expected. “On the one hand they had achieved all-time highs based largely on a lot of optimism around the latest dollar announcements from the World Bank, the progress of negotiations with the Monetary Fund, repos, etc.,” says Javier Casabal, Fixed Income Strategist at Adcap.

But he adds that “part of that optimism may have disappeared with the announcement of buying dollars from the Central because It could mean that other sources of dollars are not progressing at the cost the government envisioned or at the speed needed.. Our reading is that some investors prefer to take profits with at least part of their portfolio until they have greater clarity about that news.”

Yesterday, shortly after the market closed, the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno, announced that the Treasury was going to buy from the Central Bank US$2,701 million “to meet the payment in dollars and euros corresponding to the capital amortization of the Globales and Bonares bonds maturing in January 2025.”

Then the economic team indicated that the REPO, the loan that the government has been negotiating for months with a group of banks, is “under analysis”.

On the other hand, alternative dollars continued to decline, with the blue falling to $ 1.180a drop of 15 pesos on the day. The financial ones also fall, with the MEP in $ 1.134 and the cash with liquid in $ 1.155.

With these levels, the exchange gap falls to 18% with respect to the wholesale dollar, which gives room for calm to extend in this segment.

The shares are listed mixed in Buenos Aires, where the Merval index falls 0.6% and in New York they increase up to 2%, led by Telecom.

The purchasing phase that the Central Bank is going through also contributes to the exchange rate calm. This Wednesday he acquired US$158 million. with this in October he accumulates purchases for US$ 1,511 million, the largest purchase for the month in 15 years.