US stocks predict Ms. Harris will win

In addition to public opinion surveys, the stock market is also a place to look for indicators of who will be the new owner of the White House in the presidential election. Not entirely reflective of the broader economy, the performance of the S&P 500 – the index representing the US stock market – before election day is often a reliable indicator of whether the ruling party’s candidate Can they keep the White House or not?

Specifically, if the index falls, it shows that investors are preparing for instability from a new administration. But if the S&P 500 rises, the market expects the incumbent president’s party to win. This year, the index has increased more than 10% since August, signaling that Ms. Kamala Harris will win, according to Adam Turnquist – strategist at financial services company LPL Financial.

“When there is more certainty about the ruling party retaining the White House, the market will feel comfortable because it already knows most of their policies,” he explained.

Over the past 96 years, the S&P 500 rule has held true in 20 out of 24 presidential elections, including 2016 – the time Trump’s victory shocked the world. That year, the index fell 2.3% before election day, signaling an impending change in the White House. Mr. Adam Turnquist said people used to laugh at the thought of Mr. Trump being president. “But the market was right,” he reiterated.

However, the S&P 500 is not a perfect forecasting tool either. Its developments in 2020 showed that Trump was likely to win a second term, but as a result, Joe Biden took over the White House.

Many Wall Street experts also do not believe in the predictive ability of the S&P 500. Monica Guerra, Head of US policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said the stock market is not a ball of prophecy.

According to her, the S&P 500 has increased steadily this year, mainly thanks to the growth of large technology corporations and information from the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) fight against inflation, so it is less likely to be related to the US Federal Reserve (Fed). regarding election developments. Trump also repeatedly stated that the stock market’s rise was due to investors’ confidence that he would return to power.

Reena Aggarwal, professor of finance at Georgetown University, is also skeptical. She said stock indexes today are less representative of the U.S. economy than they were in decades past, because their growth now comes primarily from Silicon Valley businesses.

In the past, the stock market better reflected the economy because industrial and energy giants with large workforces made up a larger portion of the index. Now many large private companies do not trade on the exchange.

Justin Grimmer, a professor of public policy at Stanford University, said the historical correlation between economic indicators and who wins the presidency is important, but just for reference. Given the divided view of the economy among voters heading into election day, he said, the S&P 500 may not be the most useful factor in deciphering who wins. “You can only rely on history to a certain extent. We should wait and see what happens. It’s like tossing a coin,” he said.

Meanwhile, many business leaders on Wall Street are once again betting that Trump will soon return to power, according to Politico. “Internally, the market is very confident that Trump will win,” billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said on Bloomberg. He cited bank stocks, cryptocurrency prices and Trump Media & Technology Group as potentially benefiting when the former president wins the race for the White House. Trump Media shares have risen more than 200% since bottoming last month.

Other stocks that could get a boost from Trump’s presidency are also in the green. In a recent report, Morgan Stanley noted that a basket of investment products tracking industries that would benefit from a Republican victory – energy, banks, cryptocurrencies, among others – outperformed the party’s basket. Democracy 10% in the past year.

By October 30, survey by Reuters/Ipsos said Ms. Kamala Harris was only 1 percentage point ahead of Donald Trump in support, 44% compared to 43%. When asked who had a better approach on the economy, unemployment and jobs, Trump led with 47%, compared to Harris’ 37%. He had an economic advantage throughout the campaign, and 26% of voters said jobs and the economy were the most pressing issues to address.

Surveys show that the two candidates are competing very closely in battleground states. Therefore, efforts to ensure supporters turn out to vote are very important. According to the US Census Bureau and Pew Research Center, only two-thirds of US adults voted in 2020.

Currently, about 89% of Democratic voters and 93% of Republican voters say they will definitely participate in the vote. Among likely voters, Harris has a one-point advantage over Trump, with 47% to 46%.