Europe needs to pull itself together, whatever the outcome of the US elections

In Europe, the tension is intensifying over who will be the next US president. Democrats Horrible Harris the previous advantage has evaporated and the Republicans Donald Trump has taken the lead.

Europe has been holding its breath for a long time. Harris represents a continuum for transatlantic relations. Trump, on the other hand, has said that he wants to end the war in Ukraine the day after his election and impose high tariffs on European and Chinese products. Trump spoke about tariffs again at a campaign event last week and said that Europeans will have to “pay a big price”.

The EU’s biggest fear is that Trump will stop supporting Ukraine altogether. The United States has supplied Ukraine with important long-range missiles, anti-aircraft systems and financial support.

The EU has done its part and exported weapons and given money, but the US support is invaluable. If Trump pulls the rug out from under Ukraine, Europe is by no means ready to compensate for the loss.

Although the EU countries have partly acted unitedly to support Ukraine by imposing sanctions and starting membership negotiations, the arms deliveries have been delayed and insufficient. Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán has constantly put a lot of effort into supporting Ukraine.

Orbán has been alone, but he may have a new ally in Slovakia’s prime minister Robert Ficosta. Fico appeared on Russian state TV this week, where he criticized the West for prolonging the war by supporting Ukraine and said he was ready to negotiate with the Russian president Vladimir Putin with.

Trump’s election could also destabilize NATO’s defense cooperation. Trump has previously criticized European NATO countries for not investing enough in defense. The threat is that Trump will withdraw the USA from NATO.

On the other hand, according to other views, Trump would be exactly the shock effect that Europe needs. Politicon according to the interviewed EU officials, Trump’s re-election would force the EU countries to straighten their lines.

The EU would have no choice but to increase defense funding and tighten its China policy. If Ukraine were left without US support, decisions on, for example, a joint defense fund and joint debt to finance it could be easier.

Trump’s election could be a catalyst for many developments in Europe, such as the promotion of capital markets and the technology sector. Trump has been too Joe Biden administration is stricter with China, which has also been reflected in Europe. Trump’s second term could force the EU countries, which are sensitive to China, to toughen their positions.

Regardless of the next US president, the general assessment is that America is no longer that interested in Europe. The focus is on China, which is not only an economic competitor, but also a militarily strengthened power.

So Europe is going to be left alone. Is there enough leadership here to take fate into one’s own hands? Considering the EU’s defense and competitiveness challenges, this is not a trivial question.