Sharp slowdown in employment in the US, and Trump could take advantage of it

Job creation in the US slowed down sharply and much more than expected in October, under the combined effect of strikes and hurricanes, which could weigh on the Democratic camp four days before the presidential elections, despite an unemployment rate stable at 4.1%. Only 12,000 jobs were created in October, the Department of Labor announced today. This is much lower than expected, as analysts were counting on 110,000 jobs, according to the Market Watch consensus. “Employment estimates in some sectors are likely to have been impacted by the hurricanes,” the department said in a statement.

These figures are based on two surveys of households, businesses and government agencies, which were undoubtedly impacted by the extensive damage caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in late September and early October. Furthermore, the Department of Labor points out, “employment has declined in the manufacturing sector due to strikes”, in particular the shutdown of aircraft manufacturer Boeing since September 13. Strikers, as well as people working part-time, are considered unemployed in the United States. On the other hand, “employment continued its upward trend in the healthcare and government sectors.”

Job creation figures for August and September were also revised downwards, to 78,000 and 223,000 respectively, meaning that in total 112,000 jobs were not created.

Four days after the particularly tense and close duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, there is no doubt that Trump will take advantage of these lower numbers to point the finger at the Democrats’ economic mismanagement of the country. And voters could demand an account of it. Dems are struggling to convince voters of their good economic performance, which has been overshadowed by several years of inflation and high interest rates. Even the American dream of owning a home is now out of reach for many young families.

The President of the United States, Joe Biden, anticipating the probable exploitation of the data, declared that “job growth is expected to resume in November, thanks to the continuation of recovery and reconstruction efforts due to the hurricane”. “The American economy remains strong,” Biden added.