The friendly blocs raised the banner of the Budget’s own opinion. The decision of the governors of the “Juntos” bloc (which the government calls “The former Juntos”) set in motion a hitherto postponed initiative to carry out a project of that arc, which They believe it can add up to 100 votes and become the majority opinion.
The government has said that it does not have an opinion, because its opinion is the bill. On the other hand, the deputies of Unión por la Patria have already warned that they are going directly for rejection or with an alternative version – they do not fully agree either. This threat came at the crossroads of the dispersion that caused the adjournment of the session on Wednesday.
that day The government paid with promises for the adjournment of the session in which they were going to cut off its powers to administer through the DNU. and overthrow DNU 846 that extends facilities for debt exchanges. Half the cabinet worked the phones that day to ask the governors to remove deputies from the session. He managed to have it suspended until he saw the results of this week’s Super Tuesday.
That day is the last deadline for a commission to rule on a bill. If the ruling party accepts the governors’ requests, there will be no scaffold for the DNU on Thursday. It will be known if the government wants to have a budget or prefers to extend the existing one for the second time and continue walking along the ledge. The threat of this happening on Wednesday was the bait for the government to bite and sit down to negotiate.
The strident style of this government showed it celebrating what was a defeat: it promises to pay to continue enabling the DNU. In politics, whoever pays is point and whoever invoices is banking. Here the bank was embodied by Congress.
Rejects VAT to the media and press
The decision to advance with its own opinion took flight due to a position taken by Mauricio Macri to make the 5-point document demanded by the governors his own.
It is a novelty after he ordered the quorum to be removed from the anti-DNU session last Tuesday. Mauricio showed a key turn that redirects this debate between the ruling party and the opposition because the true support that the government has in Congress is the PRO bloc.
Macri’s position, communicated to the leadership of the bench led by Cristian Ritondo, is not limited only to supporting the five-point statement. It is completed with dissidence with Milei on institutional issues in which Olivos moves with different criteria: 1. Rejects the nomination of Ariel Lijo to the Court, now or in committee after December 1:
2) Criticizes the reluctance of the ruling party to advance the sanction of the Clean Record project;
3) rejects the imposition of VAT on the media and the press, which Macri considers a restraint on free expression and not a fiscal necessity;
4) rejects the decree that regulates the access to information law;
5) also distances itself from the ideological purge in the Foreign Ministry and the meaning of Argentina’s isolationist votes in the UN (defense of minors and women, aboriginal demands, etc.).
Behind this initiative of the recomposed understanding of those who were Cambiemos (PRO, UCR, Encuentro) there is a self-criticism of what was done before the DNU sessionstarting with the PRO who denied the quorum.
A talk took place between Frigerio and Luis Caputo, in which the latter told him that they would not be given any of the five points demanded by the governors. Macri became aware of the grievance and criticized Ritondo to support this distancing on an issue as serious as the budget.
Fernando Carbajal, a radical from Pablo Juliano’s dissident bloc, approached Espert with the five points of the governors. He responded that they would respond with an email, because the government’s opinion is the project that the Executive sent. These claims, according to the blocks’ technicians, compromise 0.29% of GDP.
They only deliver fuel
This shift took flight Thursday at a group meeting that discussed a reaction to the government’s reluctance to provide any proof that those promises to governors would be kept. There were Rogelio Frigerio, Alfredo Cornejo and Maxi Pullaro, and the block heads Cristian Ritondo (PRO), Rodrigo de Loredo (UCR), Miguel Pichetto (Encuentro Federal) and Pablo Juliano (UCR blue).
They were already aware of the government’s first response to the demands. Of the five that appeared in the list of claims, They would only allow them to share the deduction from the fuel tax. Here is a provisional summary of the response they had received:
1) The government is willing to share the funds that come with the specific impacts of the fuel tax (a part goes to Roads that does not carry out works, and another part goes to the subsidy for passenger transportation that is not paid anymore). It is the only point, of the five, that the Nation seems more willing to cede to the provinces.
2) Financing of the deficit of the Provincial Funds not transferred in accordance with the Fiscal Pacts: The government once again promised that it will comply only when the audits that the governors expect and do not comply with are carried out.
3) Financing of the Compensation of the 2017 Fiscal Pact: The Nation promises to comply with this compensation that Sergio Massa did not comply with by 2023 and that this government is owing by 2024.
4) Reduction of the co-participation contribution to the AFIP due to the transformation of the collecting Agency. For now nothing, until there is a real reduction in the size of the organization, which takes 1.9 of the contribution for the maintenance of the system.
5) Co-participation of non-distributed ATN. The Olivos negotiators flatly reject this claim. It is the box that allows them a discretion that no government has given up.
The government took the bait
This document is the basis of what will be a dissent opinion that Ritondo supported at that meeting, which complies with Macri’s direct instructions. The mood is threatening for the government, who lives off of the PRO’s past and possible vetoes of congressional laws.
Ritondo’s enthusiasm to advance a ruling means concern for the government, which in the week ahead has to walk over hot coals again. Macri’s strategy for the use of vetoes is for them to function as a regulator of relations with Mileism, in particular for his project to besiege the PRO and seize power in CABA.
The finesse of this strategy is proven by the fact that in none of the meetings with governors on the subject was the presence of Jorge Macri recorded. They surely reserve it for a final clean and jerk.
The desire to advance one’s opinion was always led by deputy Nicolás Massot, hammer of mileistas, who have an insurmountable fear of him. He wins all the arguments and is the one who has moved for positions that corner the ruling party.
Until now he had not convinced the men of his block (Encuentro), who preferred to formulate dissents during the particular vote on the law. Massot is among those who believe that the government does not really want a budget.
He was the one who proposed a week ago, in another zoom that there was of the “Juntos”, that the repeal of DNU 846 – debt exchange – had to be brought to the session as the tool for the government to open that debate within the law budget. This moved José Luis Espert to convene the Budget Commission, which until now was proceeding at a weary pace.
Cristina also wants her own opinion
This escalation made the friendly blocs see that the governors were in a hurry to disrupt the DNU session. And that Macri also went ahead by denying the quorum. The idea that was floating in Congress is that The governors disarmed the only possible resistance or limit, which was Congress., in exchange for nothing.
And that the government took their time and lost their fear. This meeting of the “Togethers” followed the plenary session of the governors of all the districts, which occurred on the same Thursday at the CFI. There was also talk of their own opinion, although until now it is a document that the plenary session entrusted to the pen of Axel Kicillof. The content is also that of the 5 points of the governors.
Since it is about sharing what the Nation keeps, the province of Buenos Aires would receive the largest slice. Let Kicillof risk his neck as the one who benefits the most. Furthermore, he is active in blocking Peronism and that serves those who complain. Peronism is divided on whether it will rule on the rejection of the Budget project, as announced by Germán Martínez (head of the bloc) or whether it will prepare its own opinion.
This is the position of Carlos Heller and Leopoldo Moreau, who snore loudly on the bench, although they have no Peronist lineage. They express Cristina de Kirchner’s interest in discussing the official project with numbers. Cristina’s reference on this issue is deputy Julia Strada.
In the hours when she was informed of the sentence and that her pensions were being taken away, Cristina trafficked messages with Strada – an economist at CEPA, a Peronist think tank – asking for details of items and tables for an eventual Peronist budget project.
The attempt surely seeks to have its own text so as not to be sucked in by the turbine of the opinion of the friendly blocs that Macri now inspires. Running away from the wrong photo is more important in politics than being in the right photo.
Milei to exam at the worst time
The tolerance of the friendly opposition is essential for the government at this time because it ends the year with a poor legislative result (DNU 70 on the ledge, the bases law jibarized) and subjected to a capabilities examination when it least suits it.
The public and the markets watch as the government discusses its ability to continue signing DNU without control, the powers to facilitate the debt exchange, and whether or not it has the will to have a budget.
The government is originally weak due to the small number of its own votes (29% in the first round) and navigates with the moderate support of a majority in Congress that supports it with wire.. He is confident that he retains support and tries to build popularity by contiguity. Hence the desire for photos. Now the goal is to have images next to Donald Trump, a product that performs.