Ukraine started using long-range missiles. is it too late

The Biden administration’s approval to allow Ukraine to attack deep into Russian territory with US missiles will delay Moscow’s supply of troops and equipment to the front lines – but critics say the decision is too late to have a significant impact on the battlefield.

For a long time, Ukraine has begged the US to allow it to use the American Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), to attack and disrupt Russia’s military activity located just a few kilometers from the front. The missiles can hit targets at a distance of 160-300 km, depending on the model, And they will allow Kiev to attack about 200 Russian targets, including airports, weapons depots, training centers and supply lines, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, in Washington.

Ukraine is expected to deploy the missiles first in the Kursk region of Russia, where Moscow’s forces are struggling to regain territory captured by the Ukrainian military in a surprise attack last summer. Ukraine did not comment on the developments, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “the missiles will speak for themselves.”

Reinforcement to the exhausted army

Giving Ukraine permission to use ATACMS deep in Russia gives a boost to the exhausted Ukrainian army, which has been in slow but steady retreat in recent weeks against the large and well-equipped Russian army. The impact of the long-range missiles depends on how much the US will send and whether Moscow can adjust its military strategies to prevent Ukraine from significantly harming its forces.

For months, the United States rejected Ukraine’s pleas to obtain permission to use ATACMS deeper into Russian territory, fearing an escalation from Moscow. Deputy National Security Advisor John Feiner noted yesterday (Monday) in Rio de Janeiro that the entry of North Koreans to the picture influenced the decision of the administration.

“The United States has made it clear throughout the conflict that we will make our policy decisions based on the circumstances we identify on the battlefield, including in recent days and weeks, in which we have identified a significant escalation on the part of Russia, which includes the deployment of forces by a foreign country on its territory,” Feiner said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that if the US granted such permission, it would be the beginning of a “new cycle of tensions.”

A familiar pattern

Washington’s caution in supplying weapons to Ukraine continues a familiar pattern that has accompanied it in the conduct of the three years of war so far. Thus, long discussions, often accompanied by public commentary, gave Russia an opportunity to prepare for the new campaign, until the US eventually gave the green light.

The long U.S. approval time allowed Russia to move some of its most significant targets, such as planes and helicopters, out of ATACMS range, said Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense research institute. Ukraine could still hit other targets, “But it will have a reduced impact compared to when the Ukrainians first asked for the weapons,” Savil said.

“While Ukraine has been fighting for months to get new weapons, approvals for their deployment and investments in its defense industry, Russia is getting what it needs to kill Ukrainians and occupy their land,” former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Koleva wrote on social media.

Hundreds of potential targets

However, the ability to use ATACMS deep in Russia puts hundreds of potential targets within range of Ukraine. So far, Russia has been able to manage its front-line logistics without fear of disruption. Now, ammunition depots, airfields and staging areas are all within Ukrainian range.

One of the first areas where Ukraine can deploy the long-range missiles is in Kursk, the Russian region that Ukraine owns a part of and faces an attack against Gaza by Russia. In Kursk, Russia concentrated forces and equipment, including about 50 thousand Russian soldiers and about 10,000 conscripts from North Korea. Controlling the ground could be critical in potential negotiations, which US President-elect Donald Trump has said he wants to advance.

If the long-range missiles are deployed in Kursk, they may force Russia to move deployment areas further from the front line. Currently, the Russian military can deploy men and equipment quickly, with most equipment organized in assault positions about 30-50 km from the front, out of range of Himars, a short-range missile system that Ukraine is already authorized to use. Ukraine’s long-range missiles would take hours for Russian forces to reach the frontline, giving the Ukrainians more room to maneuver to launch their attacks.

Other significant potential targets for the ATACMS missiles are airfields that store bombs and attack helicopters. Attacking the airports will help the Ukrainians defend themselves against the brutal aerial bombardment carried out by dropping Russian hover bombs.