Positive lock in Europe; Chip stocks surged due to the easing of sanctions on China

Trade overview: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities and analyst recommendations

18:50

Positive closing in Europe: the DAX index rose by about 0.9%, the CAC advanced by about 0.5% and the Potsi climbed by 0.1%.

stock Grifols It fell 10.7%, a day after the Canadian Brookfield fund announced it would withdraw from its planned purchase of the Spanish pharmaceutical company.

At the same time, a share Airbus climbed 4% after reports that it is expected to receive jet engines from aircraft engine maker CFM to help the company meet its year-end targets, Reuters reported.

16:55

A positive trend in Europe: the DAX index rises by about 0.9%, the CAC advances by about 0.7% and the FTSE climbs slightly by about 0.2%.

The rating agency S&P Global published a forecast for the first quarter of 2025, in which it claimed that the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency “is already driving the macroeconomic environment and increasing the downside risks for the global economy”.

The chief economist of the rating agency, Paul Grunwald, said that “our preliminary assessment regarding the new US administration is that positive effects on growth will be minimal, inflationary pressures will increase, and the Fed will likely stop interest rate cuts sooner. This will lead to tighter economic conditions, a stronger dollar and a complicated macro environment elsewhere.”

Also, according to the company’s forecast, growth in the Eurozone will rise from 0.8% in 2024 to 1.2% in 2025, with Germany recovering from a 0.1% contraction to 0.9% growth. The forecast for the USA is a slowdown from 2.7% growth in 2024 to 2% in 2025.

15:19

European stock markets are rising today and recovering from yesterday’s declines. Dax rises by 0.6%, Kac by 0.4% and Potsi unchanged.

Macro in Germany: inflation rose to an annual rate of 2.2% compared to an expected 2.3% and compared to 2% last month. On an annual basis, prices fell by 0.2%, as expected.

14:17

There will be no trading on Wall Street today. In the meantime, J.P. Morgan is optimistic about the American stock market next year and in the long term. The American Bank believes that the macro conditions support the continuation of the positive direction of the US stock market next year, and explain that the inflation and interest trends may improve consumer confidence – a matter that will support increased spending and economic growth.

J.P. Morgan also believes in connection with the year 2025 that the stock market may present adequate returns even after considering inflationary effects. In a longer-term view, of about 10 years ahead, J.P. Morgan’s expectation is for an average annual return of close to 7% that may be generated by the largest stocks in the American market – based on the assumption that the macro conditions and growth expectations of the companies will offset a negative effect possible of their relatively high pricing today.

12:11

In Europe, the increases continue – DAX and KAC rise by 0.9%, Putsi by 0.4%.

British insurance company stock Direct Line jumps after the company announced that a purchase offer from the competitor Aviva “Significantly undervalued”. Aviva announced yesterday that it had submitted a full takeover offer for the company on November 19, offering Direct Line shareholders a payment of 112.5 pence per share in cash – a 59.7% premium to the closing price on November 18 – as well as 0.282 new Aviva shares for each Direct share. Line.

10:45

Trading in Europe is going up this morning, Dax and Kak are up by 0.7%, Potsi by 0.3%.

Shares of major semiconductor equipment companies in the world are soaring today following a report that the US is considering easing sanctions on China’s chip industry. ASML The Dutch rose about 4.3% in early trading hours in Europe, while Tokyo Electron shares rose more than 6% in Japan.

Bloomberg reported that Washington is considering additional steps to limit sales of chip manufacturing equipment and AI memory chips to China, but the new rules may be less stringent than previous proposals that were seen as tougher.

09:43

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC+ has postponed the meeting to decide on the next steps in the oil production strategy until December 5, according to sources who passed the information to CNBC. The sources, who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the discussions, noted that the organization was originally scheduled to meet on December 1. They will now hold the hearing virtually next week.

08:47

Trading in Asia this morning follows a mixed trend – Nikkei rises by 0.8%, Shanghai and Hang Seng fall by 0.4% and 1.3% respectively, the South Korean Kospi unchanged after the country’s central bank lowered interest rates by 0.25% this morning.

Today on the occasion of Thanksgiving, there will be no trading on Wall Street, tomorrow trading will end at 20:00 Israel time.

Yesterday, declines were recorded on Wall Street and the indexes retreated from Tuesday’s highs – Nasdaq closed down 0.6%, S&P 500 down 0.4%, Dow Jones down 0.3%. Russell 2000, the index of small stocks rose by about 0.1%. Although November is a good month – Dow Jones is already up 7%, the best month this year, Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rose 5%. The Russell 2000 rose this month by about 8%.

Nvidia It also fell yesterday and completed a decline of about 8% in the week and in the process fell from the top as the largest company in the world by market value. Despite this, it was announced yesterday that Ken Griffin, manager of the world’s largest hedge fund, Citadel, tripled his holdings in the company in the third quarter after selling many of its shares in the second quarter. At the same time, Griffin greatly reduced his holdings inPalantir .

membership Dell Technologies and-HP Falling sharply after releasing reports yesterday indicating a slow recovery in the PC market, both companies reported disappointing forecasts that led to declines in their shares in early trading. For HP this is the sharpest fall in four years. The CEOs of the companies stated that the adoption of computers adapted to artificial intelligence may stimulate renewed demand, but a significant recovery is expected to occur only in the second half of 2025.

Cyber ​​company stock Crowdstrike decreased by about 5% following a disappointing forecast from the company. CEO George Kurtz said in an investor call that the company expects an acceleration in annual recurring net income in the second half of 2025.

solaredge jumped more than 8% after announcing today the closure of its energy storage division, based on the Korean company Kokam. The closing of the activity will affect about 500 employees (about 12% of its workforce), most of them in Korea, at the “Sela 2” plant, named after the founder and CEO of the company in the past, the late Guy Sela. The move will not affect workers in Israel. In the last five trading days, the stock jumped by about 35%.

The fashion retailer’s stock Urban Outfitters jumped about 19% after the company reported the best quarter in its history.

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In the USA yesterday there were decreases in yields – that of the ten-year government bond fell by 7 basis points to 4.23% and the two-year bond yield by 5 basis points to 4.2%.

Following the publication of the private consumption expenditure index yesterday in the US, the dollar weakened yesterday in the world markets – the world dollar index (DXY) which measures the dollar exchange rate against a basket of six currencies fell relatively sharply (1%).

● Close to half a billion dollars thanks to volatility: foreign banks made a run on Israel’s economy

In the commodities market, oil prices remained steady as traders await clues as to whether OPEC+ will delay resuming oil output and debate the stability of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah. The price of American oil (WTI) traded with minor changes around 69 dollars per barrel, the price of Brent oil maintained a price close to 73 dollars.

In the United States, crude oil inventories fell by 1.84 million barrels, a smaller decline than the forecast of 5.9 million barrels reported by an industry group on Tuesday. However, oil exports rose to their highest level since late July, supporting prices, despite a significant increase in gasoline inventories. Gasoline futures fell to their lowest level in more than a week, and diesel prices also fell.

Bitcoin returned to gains yesterday (5%) and traded at over $96,000 per coin, Ethereum jumped by about 10% to $3,600.

Coffee prices are at their peak. Coffee contracts continued their sharp rise and hit a more than four-decade high in New York amid concerns about global supply, which could lead to further increases in costs for consumers. The price of Arabica beans – the preferred variety for specialty drinks – is up about 3.9% today and has reached its highest level since 1977. During this year they jumped by almost 70%.

A severe drought earlier this year in Brazil raised concerns about the country’s output. Added to this are concerns about another variety of beans being produced in Vietnam, after a major coffee-growing region was hit by drought during the growing season, followed by heavy rains at the start of the picking season. Brazil and Vietnam are the largest coffee producers in the world, with Brazil mainly focusing on exporting high-quality Arabica beans and Vietnam leading the market in cheap Robusta beans.

The fluctuations in prices are expected to burden cafes and coffee shops, which will ultimately lead to an increase in costs for consumers. Throughout the supply chain, sellers raised prices and eliminated discounts to maintain their profit margins. Nestlé, the world’s largest coffee maker, announced in November that it would raise prices and reduce the size of packages to deal with rising bean prices.

Data from the core index of private consumption expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, released yesterday indicate that prices rose in October by 2.8% on an annualized basis, in line with expectations and slightly more than last month’s 2.7%. Private spending prices in October rose by 0.3%, as expected and as last month.

Yoni Penning, chief strategist of the transaction room, Mizrahi Tefahot in response to the PCE index: “The PCE price index added 0.2% during October. We will remind you that fuel prices fell during the month, in preparation for the elections. And deducting this and food prices, core inflation adds 0.3 % during the month, and is complementary to the increase of 2.8%, in the last year. The mentioned figures are consistent with the increase reported in the price index to the US consumer, earlier this month.”

“We will remind you that at the beginning of this year, especially in January, high inflation was recorded, especially in the service industries, which had a noticeable impact on the core figure. The latest inflation figures, both in the PCE index and in the CPI index, are high by 0.3% (in PCE as mentioned) up to over one percent (the core of the CPI index) of the 2% target set by the American central bank. Meanwhile, against this background, the markets are quite doubtful as to how much the central bank This will agree to accept this situation, and will lower the interest rate by another quarter of a percent, in a decision in three weeks. Before today’s figure, the expectation for a reduction was about 65%, and it seems that the current figure does not matter much.”

“Looking ahead, the US economy will probably be more affected by the policy changes as a result of the change of government, than by today’s figure. The market’s interpretation of this matter was decisive close to the announcement of the results, three weeks ago, with an increase of about 0.4% in the short-term inflationary expectations, in the interbank market, to close to 2.8%, significantly higher than what is in line with the Fed’s target. During the week, we saw a moderation, of about 0.15% in expectations, after the appointment of Scott Bessant as Secretary of the Treasury of the United States. The classic argument in this regard is, of course, that the increase in tariffs on goods from abroad will lead to an increase in prices in the country, when Besant’s appointment is mainly seen as one that will moderate those tariffs a little. Governmentality, and the return of illegal immigrants to the country to their countries of origin, to the extent that they exist, may be substantial more”.

UBS expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and then cut it once every quarter in 2025, with a final interest rate target of 3.25%-3.5%. The US economy remains strong, but there are signs of weakness in industry and the labor market. Sticky core inflation, especially in the housing sector, may cause the Fed to keep interest rates close to 4% if not moderated.

Goldman Sachs commented yesterday on incoming President Donald Trump’s plan to raise tariffs, mainly on imports from Canada: “Consumers in the US may face significant consequences.” The bank expressed doubts about the implementation of the move. “The 25% tariff on all products from Canada, proposed by Trump, may lead to an increase in fuel prices in the US,” said Dan Struiben, Goldman’s head of commodity research, adding that this tactic is reminiscent of Trump’s first term and may be used as a bargaining tool.

“Tariffs could theoretically lead to significant consequences for three groups: US consumers, US refiners and Canadian producers,” Struyvan said yesterday. “Given Trump’s efforts to reduce energy costs, we believe that the likelihood of imposing tariffs on Canada is low.”

The U.S. imports nearly 4 million barrels of crude oil from Canada a day, allowing American producers to export more of their own oil. The CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers added that the tariffs would lead to higher gasoline and energy costs for American consumers.