South Korea’s democracy has been rescued from the abyss

The very impressive success story of South Korea consisted, at least in the last 35 years, of two main parts: its rise from the destruction and ravages of the Korean War (over 70 years ago) to the status of the 12th (or 13th) largest economy in the world; And it emerged from a heavy darkness of oppression to the status of one of the few flourishing democracies of the Asian continent.

The democratic miracle of South Korea, the one that placed it in such stark contrast to all its neighbors, was put into dramatic doubt this evening (Israel time). The President of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yul, put his citizens to bed at midnight (Korea time) to the sound of a sudden announcement of the establishment of a military regime and the complete suspension of all civil liberties. Parliament was closed, political activity was banned, freedom of speech was suspended. The reason: an external threat to the safety of South Korea and its democracy from North Korea and its internal helpers in the South.

The putsch did not go well. The president, bareheaded, was forced to retract within six hours after parliament lifted the state of emergency. He managed to get together relatively easily, even if some of his friends had a hard time jumping over the fence. The speaker of the parliament reversed the creation, declaring that the military regime is now illegal, and any attempt to obey it is illegal anyway. The military forces sent to prevent the assembly of the parliament rushed to evacuate it. It was a pretty clear sign of things to come.

Will the army obey?

From the beginning the vital question was to whom the loyalties of the army rested, and to what extent the will of the generals could be enforced on their orders. During the night of Korea, news came from Seoul on behalf of the military that the president’s announcement stands. But it was not clear if and how the army would enforce the declaration. Will the generals be willing to return to where their predecessors stood almost 45 years ago, when soldiers fought students in the streets and killed crowds (the Gwangju Uprising, May 1980)?

The Korean military used to hold full power, or at least pull the strings. For 25 years and more, from 1962 until the late 1980s, brutal military dictators ruled the country. But the army of the dictators Park Chung Hee (assassinated in 1979 by the head of his intelligence services) and Chun Do-wan (who was overthrown in 1988) is not similar to the current army, which is used to obeying elected governments.

Since 1988 South Korea has had strictly democratic multi-party elections. The constitution prohibits presidents from serving more than five years, and parties have returned and changed power continuously.

But a cloud of instability has clouded South Korea in the last generation, the result of bitter political polarization and the usual contradictions in mixed regimes: the executive power in the hands of one party, the legislative power in the hands of a second party. When the opposition takes over the legislative assembly, it immediately tries to restrict the president’s feet, or even impeach him.

A left-wing president was ousted by a right-wing majority in 2004 (the Supreme Court overturned the decision). Although its right-wing president was ousted by a left-wing majority in 2016 for corruption, she was later convicted and sentenced to prison. The leftist majority in the current assembly has started a process of impeachment against President Yun.

“How can you be such a person”

It seems that one of Yun’s critical weaknesses is his lack of political experience and limited communication skills. He comes from a legal background, and served as Attorney General before his presidency. He did enjoy public appreciation at the time for his fight against corruption, which enabled him to run successfully for the presidency in 2022. But since then he has demonstrated tone-deafness: insensitivity and lack of skill in the public arena.

Yoon is perhaps the most unpopular president in South Korean history. His popularity in polls dropped in the summer to around 20%. During the summer, a million citizens and more signed a petition in favor of his impeachment.

At the end of last month, almost 1,500 Catholic priests (in a country where a tenth of its inhabitants, almost six million people, are Catholics) signed a petition that attacked Ion in a particularly inflammatory style. Its title was “How can one be such a person”. The petition stated that Yun “is a scarecrow of private interests, who has no idea what he is doing or who he is”. The priests accused, that Yoon “transferred the authority that the people gave him to his wife”, no less.

Fundamentally unexpected was Yoon’s decision to use the most extreme tool that the constitution gives to South Korean presidents: martial law. This tool was designed to protect the peace of the republic against communist subversion.

Democracy, 50 km from the enemy

North Korea invaded the South and conquered almost all of it within a few weeks in the summer of 1950. Only massive US intervention, aided by allies, restored the South. Only an American presence and public commitment to the peace of South Korea dissuaded the North from further aggression. But its traces of North subversion are evident in South Korea since then. Its periodic attempts to reconcile with the North did not go well.

In this sense, the military’s mission is not only to protect external borders, but also the South Korean way of life. This country, which grew up in the shadow of a centuries-old despotic or authoritarian tradition, succeeded in becoming a liberal and pluralistic democracy, known today not only for its shipyards, or its automobile industry, or its phenomenal technological successes, but also for its creative cinema, whose output has spread like fire, and it gives Often the tone on streaming services all over the world.

All of this is taking place 50 km (in the case of the capital city of Seoul) from the fortified border with North Korea, under the hostile eyes of an evil totalitarian regime, seething with contempt for Western democracy and eager to destroy it. The North is armed from head to toe, including with nuclear and ballistic weapons.

These circumstances make South Korea’s success story complex, complicated, multi-contradictory and potentially very fragile. They give validity to its democracy, but also place it in special dangers. They also make it easier for politicians to accuse their opponents of sympathizing with the North, or even of providing services to the North.

Usually, it is the right that questions the patriotism of the left. It is by no means a Korean invention, but in South Korea it passes to the merchant and the voter, and often inspires confidence. That’s exactly what President Yoon hopes to do today: convince most South Koreans that the military regime is necessary to fend off external threats.

Amateur coup?

Many years of monitoring the dynamics of military coups and coup attempts shows that the opening momentum is absolutely essential. A coup that does not immediately demonstrate its power and willingness to suppress opponents is prone to failure. She must take over the street; It must neutralize the legislative assembly, especially if that assembly is controlled by the opposition; It must disrupt the ability of its opponents to communicate and organize.

President Yun failed in the most important task of any putsch: to immediately cripple the potential for resistance. Usually this is done through mass arrests, certainly preventive arrests of opposition leaders and activists, such as students or labor organizations. It is impossible to understand, for example, why the electricity was not cut off to the parliament building and its surroundings; And why weren’t the television broadcasts from the plenary session of the parliament stopped? In the historical lexicon of coup plotters, it is almost an expression of amateurism.

Maybe that’s a good sign. Maybe South Korea managed to get rid of the obsession of military coups. Even if you don’t know South Korea or know its history, any democrats are allowed to let out a sigh of relief.

Previous blog listings and Bioav Karni. Tweets (in English) at @YoavKarny, tweets in Hebrew at @KavHamashve.