Positive trend in Asia; The Nikkei rose 1.2%

Trade overview: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities and analyst recommendations

08:48

This morning in Asia, the main indices are trading in a positive trend. The Nikkei rises by 1.5%, the Hang Seng adds 1.2% to its value, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rises by 0.5% and the Kospi index rises by 1.3%.

US futures are trading slightly lower.

Last night (Wed) on Wall Street, the trading day closed with a mixed trend. Nasdaq rose 1.8%, trading at an all-time high when it crossed the 20,000 point mark for the first time. Since the beginning of the year, the index has recorded a return of 33%. The S&P 500 added 0.8% to its value last night and the Dow Jones fell 0.2%.

Against the background of the positive trend, the inflation data in the US published last night at noon (extension below) met the early expectations (2.7% annual rate) and reassured investors on Wall Street regarding the Fed’s outline of interest rate cuts, which is expected to continue at the central bank meeting next week.

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She was responsible for the positive sentiment in Nasdaq Alphabetical (Google) Which also broke a new record after the tech giant announced a new quantum chip called “Willow”. The new chip was developed by the Google Quantum AI team, a division that deals with the development of quantum computing.

also Tesla broke a new record last night and pushed the Nasdaq index higher when it jumped by about 6%. Shares too Amazon.com andMeta stood out positively. The total market value of the four technology giants increased by 416 billion dollars last night.

Against the background of the increases in the Alphabet stock – the technology giant announced a new quantum chip called “Willow”. The new chip was developed by the Google Quantum AI team, a division that deals with the development of quantum computing.

besides, dark gathered interest after announcing the official release of the integration of the popular smart chat ChatGPT in Siri – the voice assistant built into Apple devices. The connection comes as part of the iOS 18.2 software update that launched today. As mentioned, the update allows Siri to use the OpenAI language model in order to answer complex questions, and it also brings with it new tools for creating and editing images. This is the second step in the process that began in October, when Apple launched Apple Intelligence – its new artificial intelligence system.

Broadcom Also stood out positively and jumped about 7% after it was reported that the chipmaker will help Apple in creating AI chips.

Among the Israelis on Wall Street, Sargon Jumped about 9% last night and broke a record of more than a decade in the share price. This week it was written about the stock on the investor website simply wall street that Sargon manages to increase efficiency and increase the rate of return on capital and in the process the stock rose over 100% in the last few weeks.

In the US debt market, government bond yields are climbing slightly. The 10-year yield to maturity is trading around 4.27% this morning and the two-year yield is 4.16%.

Oil prices are rising slightly this morning. The price of a barrel of Brent stands at 74 dollars and the price of a barrel of WTI trades around 70 dollars.

Reuters reported this morning that OPEC has cut its forecast for growth in global oil demand for 2024, for the fifth month in a row. OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 1.61 million barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 1.82 million barrels per day last month. At the same time, the growth estimate for 2025 was lowered on the horizon, when among the reasons for the cut in fuel consumption is the expectation of a decrease in demand from China for oil.

After retreating from a record of $100,000 per coin, Bitcoin returned to trading around the $100,618 level this morning.

In the macro sector, in the US the consumer price index for the month of November was published on Wednesday, which stood at 2.7% in the last 12 months. This is the third moderate increase in a row, after an increase of 2.4% in September and 2.6% in October. This means that the progress in reducing inflation It stopped, but not in a way that would cause the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged next week – the interest rate is expected to decrease by 0.25%.

The Swiss bank EFG estimates that the inflation data increases the chance of a delay in interest rate cuts in the US in 2025: Gianluigi Mandrozzato, the bank’s senior economist emphasizes that: “The inflation data in the US for the month of November are at the high end of the Fed’s target range , which may affect the pace of interest rate cuts next year.”

According to him, while the data are not expected to prevent the 0.25% interest rate cut in December, they increase the chance of a pause in interest rate cuts at the beginning of 2025. “The next direction of the interest rate will depend on the data and the assessment of the risks to price stability, especially in light of the expected policies of the new administration,” explains Mandrozzato .

Today at 15:15 the European Central Bank is expected to publish its interest rate decision. Biolius Barr explains that: “Although the economic fundamentals support an interest rate reduction of 0.5%, we believe that the chance of a 0.5% reduction in one meeting is low, and that the ECB will choose to reduce by 0.25% instead, and will continue at this rate in the following meetings as well. The European region is faced with A significant loss in international price competitiveness, as labor costs and production prices have risen more than in other countries in the last three years to lower wages and job uncertainty, which will lead to deflationary forces in the coming months.

“As a result, the tightening monetary policy is not appropriate for the current situation. We expect the European Central Bank to update its forecasts and lower its growth and inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. In contrast, the Federal Reserve faces fewer deflationary forces. Analysis of comments heard from Federal Reserve officials Indicates a bullish approach by the majority, indicating that interest rate cuts will be stopped at the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is not unreasonable. President-elect Trump’s policy increases the Federal Reserve’s caution regarding interest rate cuts. In light of mixed economic data, the date of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut is still unclear.”

At the same time, later today the interest rate decision will take place in Switzerland and the US producer price index data will be published.

Blackrock published forecasts for 2025 and noted that US stocks continue to be a preferred target thanks to their corporate strength and durability even at high interest rates. They also point out that in Japan, stocks are overweight due to corporate reforms and mild inflation. Conversely, in Europe Blackrock remains underweight due to structural challenges.

“The most likely scenario for the next six to 12 months is the continuation of the strength of the American companies, with the expansion of the growth in profitability, even in a situation of a slight slowdown in the economy.” Emphasize in Blackrock. They also note the importance of flexibility in investment portfolios, focusing on opportunities in emerging markets such as India and Saudi Arabia, which are at the intersection of structural megapowers, and in sectors such as technology and health.

In the rest of Blackrock’s channels, long-term government bonds in the UK are preferred, where the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates more than the market estimates due to the weakness of the economy. In private markets, Blackrock maintains the long-term preference for infrastructure due to attractive valuations and structural strengths.