In the last wheel of the year, the parallel dollar rises but closes 2024 with a drop of 38% in real terms

In the last exchange round of the year, the parallel dollar maintains the upward trend that it presented days ago: on the streetblue is still in demand and rises to $1,225, its highest value since the end of October. While the prices that operate on the stock market rise up to 0.6% and the gap with the official exchange rate, which had almost become extinct, adjusts to over 12%.

Despite this renewed exchange rate pressure, there is one fact that persists: it is that the dollar remained still in nominal terms, it rose barely 22% in the year if cash with settlement is taken as an example, but fell 38% in real terms, That is, if the impact of inflation in the last twelve months is discounted.

In the City they seek to clarify whether the rise in the parallel dollar this month, the MEP recovered 9.6% compared to its close in November, responds to seasonal issues, or to a change in underlying trend.

Only last week the Central Bank sold US$800 million to satisfy the demand in the exchange market. The bulk of these sales were made last Thursday, when the organization had to part with US$600 million. However, the monetary authority reinforced the idea that these sales were due to “extraordinary questions.”

The presence of the importing sector in the official market, after the end of the Country Tax, appears as a variable to monitor. “This week it will be key to see if the BCRA continues selling currencies in the official market and, if so, the magnitude of the sales. Here the evolution of private demand will play a determining role, with guaranteed access for those importers who expected that the payment on account of the COUNTRY tax will cease,” they said in PPI.

“Additionally, it will be relevant to see if private supply remains at Friday’s levels or if it was a specific issuesince it could help contain the pace of BCRA sales. Finally, it will be key to closely follow the behavior of financial dollars and the volumes operated in GD30 and AL30 t+1 in MEP and CCL, which will allow us to anticipate whether the BCRA’s intervention continues to diminish,” they added.

The consulting firm Outier pointed out that last week what calmed the rise in financial exchange rates was the intervention of the BCRA. Regarding what was seen in the previous week they explained: “The market for securities in pesos was noticeably heavier, which would imply that there was a carry closure. This makes a lot of sense in the context of purchases by importers who were parked in securities in pesos and then paid for the imports. Therefore, although there may be a residual flow at financial exchange rates, the unwinding of LECAP positions would seem to be going to the official exchange rate market rather than to the financial ones.”

On the financial front, dollar bonds operate with certain volatility and the country risk, which had closed on Friday at 627 points, returns to 640. All in all, the JP Morgan banking indicator closes the year with a drop of more than 62%.