At the end of the year, Kauppalehti’s editorial team unearthed a crystal ball and made predictions about the events of 2025.
In a poll, we asked readers for predictions on the same themes. There were plenty of answers – more than five thousand in total. You could answer the survey in connection with Kauppalehti’s online stories for about a week.
The overwhelming favorite of Kauppalehti readers as the most rising stock on the Helsinki Stock Exchange this year is the fuel company In this. It received 879 mentions in the open question, where the highest rising stock was guessed about 3,500 times.
Readers predict that the second biggest price riser will be a cancer drug developer Faroniawhich received 221 bets, and the third rate rocket was an online company Nokiawhich garnered 208 votes.
After these, they also received a considerable number of mentions Nordea, Nokian Tires, Kone and Fortum.
Kauppalehti’s editors predicted Faron as the strongest riser.
Other questions were answered with “yes” or “no”.
The readers agreed with the editors that the Helsinki Stock Exchange will turn upward this year. This was answered by 66 percent of the survey respondents.
According to the editorial’s forecast, the general index of the Helsinki Stock Exchange would rise by nine percent and yield 14 percent including dividends.
A narrow majority of readers, 52 percent of the respondents, were of the opinion that the return of the S&P 500 stock index of large American companies will not exceed ten percent this year.
The management agreed with this. Kauppalehti’s jury predicted that the S&P 500 index could rise by only two percent this year.
Bitcoin and gold are getting more expensive
60 percent of the respondents to our survey were of the opinion that the price of the cryptocurrency bitcoin will not rise this year.
In this matter as well, the views of the readers and the editors are in line. Kauppalehti predicted that the bitcoin rate will fall and will be around $72,000 at the end of 2025.
More than two-thirds of readers, 68 percent, were of the opinion that the price of gold will rise this year.
The management was also of the opinion that the glitter of gold will remain strong this year. The editorial predicted that the price of gold will be 2,950 dollars at the end of the year, or about ten percent higher than today.
The trade war is making a comeback
Readers and editors predicted the European Central Bank’s monetary policy in the same way.
55 percent of the survey respondents were of the opinion that the ECB’s deposit rate will fall below the two percent limit by the end of this year.
The editorial predicted that the ECB will lower the deposit rate to 1.75 percent by the end of June and leave it at this level until the end of 2025.
In terms of trade policy, the views of the editors and readers differed.
62 percent of Kauppalehti’s readers are of the opinion that the returning president of the United States Donald Trump will not start a trade war with the European Union this year.
The editorial speculated that a trade war would hit Europe in March when the steel tariffs return.
59 percent of the readers who responded to Kauppalehti’s survey were of the opinion that the war in Ukraine will not end this year with a peace agreement or a lasting ceasefire.
Kauppalehti’s editors also predicted that a permanent solution would not be reached this year, even if a cease-fire was achieved.
Small growth in the economy
62 percent of the readers who responded to Kauppalehti’s survey believe that Finland’s gross domestic product will not grow by 1.5 percent or more this year.
Kauppalehti’s editors predicted 1.3 percent economic growth in Finland this year.
The majority of respondents, 62 percent, do not believe that the line of general wage increases will stabilize at more than six percent in the next two years.
Kauppalehti’s forecast puts the cost impact of the two-year contract at around 5.8 percent, i.e. in the 5.3–6.3 percent range.
Kauppalehti’s forecasts are our editors’ assessment of the most likely scenarios.
We strive for sharp and clear views even in the jungle of uncertain options, and at the same time we accept that the probability of getting it right in many questions is small. The forecasts do not represent wishes, political positions or necessarily Kauppalehti’s line.
We will monitor the realization of our forecasts and will return to the matter at the latest after the end of this year.
Our previous predictions about the events of 2024 did not come true in all respects, but there were some hits, as you can read in this story.