Mixed trend in Asia; Nikkei falls 1.5%

Trade review: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities and analyst recommendations

In Asia, the trend is mixed this morning following economic data published in several countries – the Japanese Nikkei sheds 1.5%, the Shanghai and Hang Seng falls by 0.3%, the South Korean Kospi rises by 1.7% despite the political uncertainty that prevails in the country.

Wall Street futures are trading unchanged this morning. This week is also expected to be a shortened week, on Thursday the market will be closed in honor of the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter.

Last Friday there was a green lock on Wall Street, the Dow Jones rose by 0.8%, the S&P 500 by 1.3% and the Nasdaq by about 1.8%, but in the last five trading days the indexes fell by more than 1.5% each.

After two consecutive years of gains of more than 20% in the S&P 500 index, an achievement not seen since the late 1990s, Wall Street strategists expect this year’s return to be lower. The median forecast of 15 major investment houses stands at 6,600 points, about 11 %.

The senior analysts on Wall Street also warn against a volatile year due to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s interest rate cuts and the entry of the new administration led by Donald Trump into office. “Bull markets can, should, and even should slow down from time to time, a period of ‘digestion’ that highlights the health of the underlying positive trend,” wrote Brian Belsky, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, in his 2025 forecast. 2025 will result in more normal returns and more balanced performance between sectors and between large and small stocks.”

Belsky estimated a target of 6,700 points for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025, a return of 9.8%, exactly in line with the average historical return of the index.

Of the 15 forecasts published by Yahoo Finance, Oppenheimer and Wells Fargo are the most optimistic, they expect the index to rise to 7,100 points this year, 19%. JP Morgan and UBS are the most pessimistic, where they expect 6,500 and 6,400 points for the index, only about 9%. Bank of America in the middle of forecasts – 6,666 points.

stock Nvidia led the gains on Friday among the “Magnificent Seven” after they fell in the final days of 2024. The artificial intelligence chip maker’s stock rose 4.5% on Friday, after rising about 3% the previous day.

Today, just as trading in the US opens, Jensen Hwang, CEO of Nvidia, will give the opening speech at the annual technology conference (CES). This is the most important conference in the US for technology companies. Last year Nvidia increased by 14% during the 7 days of the conference.

Tesla It registered an impressive increase on Friday as well, with a jump of more than 8%. stock Alphabetical (Google) , Microsoft andMeta Platforms (Facebook) rose by about 1% each, while eight shares Amazon jumped by almost 2%. stock dark remained relatively stable without significant change.

In the US debt market, the 10-year yield in the US stood at 4.6% at the end of last week. During the past week, the yields recorded a slight decrease along the curve.

In the US, the most important statistic of the week will be published on Friday – the monthly employment report, which will be the most important statistic on the employment market before the interest rate decision at the end of the month. The market expectation is that the labor market cooled to 153 thousand new jobs in December compared to 227 thousand new jobs in November.

In China, China’s central bank pledged to increase financial support for technology companies and to encourage consumption, with the aim of reviving economic growth. The bank also repeated its promise to reduce interest rates and the ratio of reserve requirements from banks. In addition, the country’s foreign exchange regulator indicated that it would promote “high-quality” investments by foreign capital in the local technology industry. Bloomberg pointed out this morning that stronger measures by Beijing will continue to be the focus of attention of investors in Asia, but the risk of a hawkish approach by the US Fed may weigh on stocks in the region this year.