S-Pankki: Up to 15 percent return from the stock market this year

Those who have invested in shares of the Helsinki Stock Exchange may finally see a light at the end of the tunnel this year, he estimates S-Bank.

S-Pankki predicts that companies’ profit growth will rise to up to 16–17 percent, when Finland’s real economy begins to support the development of the Helsinki Stock Exchange.

“When high expectations have moved to 2025 after a weak 2024, we expect profit growth to support the Finnish stock market. Finland is very sensitive to the influence of the policy interest rate. We see interest rates continuing to fall, and that will benefit the Finnish economy as consumers become more cautious,” says S-Bank’s chief strategist Tanja Wennonen-Kärnä in the bulletin.

For this reason, S-Pankki currently overweights its Finnish stocks in its own investment view.

S-Pankki also sees excellent conditions in the US stock market due to the country’s strong economic growth. The profit growth of companies is expected to reach about 12 percent this year in the United States.

“The US market has been boosted especially by the technology giants, higher economic growth and consumer demand remaining strong,” explains Wennonen-Kärnä.

The Trump risk is

According to Wennonen-Kärnän, the clear election result reduced the risks in the United States, but uncertainty in the world markets is created by the president starting his second term Donald Trump’s planned duties and tariffs.

“Those countries with a strong trade surplus against the USA, for example Japan, Germany, and possibly Finland too, are at the greatest risk.”

However, S-Pankki expects a 15 percent return from the global stock market this year. S-Pank’s investment view overweights stocks in relation to fixed-income investments, and the emphasis is not only on Finland, but also on the United States. In the bank’s view, Europe is underweight due to the uncertain economic outlook.